L1 · Optimism · credit leg
High-yield spread · 13w change
Junk-bond spread over Treasuries. FRED only publishes ~3 years, so it is an early-warning reading only. The ±0.30pp alert band is this site's own, not back-tested.
Source：FRED · BAMLH0A0HYM2Level：auxDescriptive
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
+0.50pp
Widening fast (early warning)13-week change +0.50pp (level 3.24%)
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Narrowing fast | < -0.30pp | 30.6% |
| Stable | -0.30pp ~ +0.30pp | 55.6% |
| Widening fast (early warning) ◀ now | ≥ +0.30pp | 13.9% |
Normal range
Current
+0.50pp
Percentile 92
Normal range (p10–p90)
-0.61pp ~ +0.37pp
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
-0.38pp ~ +0.13pp
median -0.12pp
Extremes
-1.65pp ~ +1.64pp
2024-01-05 – 2026-10-01, 144 weekly observations
p5 -0.82ppmedian -0.12ppp95 +0.63pp
Window: 2024-01-05 – 2026-10-01, 144 weekly observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 13-week change · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
High-yield spread level
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.