Terminal Overview
Terminal overview
Macro liquidity → cycle position → coin flows → sentiment, down to launchpads. Data is pulled and a rule-based log is written every day at 10:20 UTC — frozen once written, public forever.
Log date 2026-10-02
Data updated 2026-10-02 16:21 UTC
Data updated 2026-10-02 16:21 UTC
Verdict · 2026-10-02 log
水在变少、情绪却偏热——最需要警惕的组合：价格靠杠杆和情绪撑着，缺增量资金。
宏观流动性 · 流动性收缩周期定位 · 周期偏低筹码结构 · 筹码流出交易所情绪衍生品 · 情绪偏热
Stablecoins ex-payment 13wex-payment
+0.13%
Trading bullets 13w -2.65% · Flat
Launchpad fees (day)Top60
$8.06M
▲ 5.1% DoD · as of 2026-10-01
Exchange BTC net flowin − out
-4,356 BTC
7d -25,758 BTC · outflow = withdrawals
Fear & Greedalternative.me
72
Greed · 7d ago 71
Four-layer signals Click through for every reading, its zones and full history
LAYER 1 · weeks to months
Macro Liquidity：How much risk budget？
收缩：水在变少
- USDT+USDC 总市值$257.93B · 持平
- 10Y 美债实际利率2.93% · 上行
- 2Y / 10Y 利差0.46% · 偏平
LAYER 2 · weekly
Cycle Position：Cheap or expensive？
周期位置：偏低
- MVRV1.58 · 合理
- MVRV Z-Score1.02 · 偏低
- Realized Price$53,637 · 合理溢价
LAYER 3 · weekly / daily
Coin Flows：Who is moving coins on/off exchanges？
筹码在离开交易所（偏囤币）
- 交易所 BTC 净流量-4,356 BTC · 大幅净流出
LAYER 4 · intraday
Sentiment & Derivatives：Is it about to overshoot？
偏热：杠杆和情绪在升温
- 恐慌贪婪指数72 · 贪婪
- BTC 永续资金费率9.3% · 正常
- BTC 未平仓合约$3.11B · 记录中
Alerts Thresholds in Methodology
Alert board2026-10-02
- Med发射台：StonkFun 数据源延迟（最后一天 2026-09-30），相关列标「延迟」，没有拿旧值顶替
- Med发射台：赛道 Top60 分母缺 2 家（约占前一日 12%），份额偏高
Launchpads · top 6 today All 189 protocols →
| # | Platform | Chain | Fees (day) | Share | DoD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pump.fun | Solana | $2.40M | 30.0% | ▲ 12.0% |
| 2 | Flap sh | BSCX Layer | $1.56M | 19.4% | ▲ 7.0% |
| 3 | Pons V2 | Robinhood | $1.51M | 18.9% | ▼ 8.1% |
| 4 | StonkFun | Solana | $909.7K | 11.3% | ▼ 3.3% |
| 5 | LaunchLab | Solana | $460.8K | 5.7% | ▲ 2.2% |
| 6 | BONK.fun Launchpad | Solana | $330.2K | 4.1% | ▼ 8.9% |
Rotation · 24h leaders See all →
Telegram Apps
+29.74%
Cap $541.96M
Simulation Games
+23.18%
Cap $406.10M
Decentralized Identifier (DID)
+15.38%
Cap $2.99B
Play To Earn
+15.32%
Cap $2.02B
Optimism Superchain Ecosystem
+14.75%
Cap $2.65B
Metaverse
+12.02%
Cap $2.60B
Journal All logs and reviews →
- 2026-10-02Daily log水在变少、情绪却偏热——最需要警惕的组合：价格靠杠杆和情绪撑着，缺增量资金。2 alerts
- 2026-10-01Daily log水在变少、情绪却偏热——最需要警惕的组合：价格靠杠杆和情绪撑着，缺增量资金。2 alerts
- 2026-09-30Daily log水在变少、情绪却偏热——最需要警惕的组合：价格靠杠杆和情绪撑着，缺增量资金。2 alerts
- 2026-09-29Daily log水在变少、情绪却偏热——最需要警惕的组合：价格靠杠杆和情绪撑着，缺增量资金。0 alerts
- 2026-09Monthly review四层结论在这个区间内没有切换，流动性收缩、周期偏低、筹码流出交易所、情绪偏热。发射台赛道手续费环比上月 +167.3%。