Macro · 4-Layer Framework
Four-layer macro dashboard
First how much risk budget the macro backdrop allows (L1), then whether it is cheap (L2 cycle), who holds the coins (L3 exchange flows), and whether sentiment is overshooting (L4). Every card opens the full history, the zone rules, how often each zone occurred and the normal range. Anything without real data is marked pending.
Log date 2026-10-02
Ledger updated 2026-10-02 16:21 UTC
Ledger updated 2026-10-02 16:21 UTC
Verdict · 2026-10-02 log
水在变少、情绪却偏热——最需要警惕的组合：价格靠杠杆和情绪撑着，缺增量资金。
宏观流动性 · 流动性收缩周期定位 · 周期偏低筹码结构 · 筹码流出交易所情绪衍生品 · 情绪偏热
DefiLlama 稳定币 ✓ 10-01FRED ✓ 10-01Deribit ✓ 10-02CoinMetrics 周期 ✓ 10-01CoinMetrics 交易所流量 ✓ 10-01alternative.me ✓ 10-02Hyperliquid ✓ 10-02CoinGecko ✓ 10-02CoinGecko 类目 ✓ 10-02ETF 资金流 ✓ 10-01CME 升水 ✓ 10-02
L1
Macro Liquidity How much risk budget？· weeks to months
L1 governs volatility, pacing and risk budget over weeks to months, not direction — it is the throttle, not the steering wheel. Direction comes from L2 (cycle); at a six-month horizon both matter equally.
L1 regimeNeutral-cautious · alert
L1: [surging·narrowing | Neutral-cautious · alert] | optimism z +0.26 | credit: BAA 13wΔ -0.07pp / HY 3.24% (13w +0.50pp) | real yield 2.93% | net liquidity 13w -0.82% / USD 13w -0.46% | stablecoins: ex-payment 13w +0.13% / bullets 13w -2.65% | ETF 4w +$2.15B
Switch to headwind if: BAA or NFCI 13w change turns tighter, or optimism z drops below 0 (Nasdaq 13w negative / VIX>20), or net liquidity 13w ≤ −2.72% with a stronger dollar.
Scenario grid: real-yield state × optimism / credit
Real yield ↓ / optimism →
Nasdaq lens · strong
Nasdaq lens · weak
Credit lens · narrowing
Credit lens · widening
Surging (13w ≥ +0.40pp)
+27.1%up 79%
-17.8%up 13%
-3.2%up 44%
-27.0%up 15%
Nasdaq: high plateau · Credit: not surging
+13.5%up 72%
-12.0%up 33%
+12.5%up 67%
-7.6%up 39%
BTC same-period 13-week median return / share of up periods since 2022 (weekly, few independent samples). Describes the current cell only — no forecast. When the two lenses disagree, the worse cell counts. Highlighted = current cell.
Optimism · equity leg
Nasdaq-100 · 13w changecoreVerifiedOptimistic
+3.92%
13-week log change +3.92% (level 30501.56)
as of 10-01Full history →
VIXcoreVerifiedCalm
16.39
level 16.39
as of 10-01Full history →
Optimism composite zcoreVerified · directionStrong
+0.26
mean of 3 z-scores +0.26
as of 10-01Full history →
Optimism · credit leg
BAA credit spread · 13w changecoreVerifiedNarrowing
-0.07pp
13-week change -0.07pp (level 1.47%)
as of 09-30Full history →
NFCI · 13w changecoreVerified · directionEasing
-0.03
13-week change -0.03 (level -0.548)
as of 09-25Full history →
High-yield spread · 13w changeauxDescriptiveWidening fast
+0.50pp
13-week change +0.50pp (level 3.24%)
as of 10-01Full history →
Real rate (state variable)
Liquidity gate (discount only)
Fed net liquidity · 13w changecoreVerified · directionMild contraction
-0.82%
13-week change -0.82% (level $5.79T)
as of 10-01Full history →
Broad dollar · 13w changeauxVerifiedWeaker
-0.46%
13-week change -0.46% (level 120.33)
as of 09-25Full history →
Crypto-native funds (L1.5, confirm only)
Stablecoins ex-payment issuersauxVerified · directionFlat
+0.13%
13w +0.13%, BTC 13w +30.4% (level $301.42B)
as of 10-01Full history →
Trading bullets · core ex-TronauxVerified · directionContracting · diverges from price
-2.65%
13w -2.65%, BTC 13w +30.4% (level $170.19B)
as of 10-01Full history →
Yield / synthetic stablecoins · 13wauxDescriptiveLeverage receding
-5.17%
13-week change -5.17% (level $17.55B)
as of 10-01Full history →
Spot ETF · 4-week net flowauxVerified · directionInflow
+$2.15B
28-day sum +$2.15B, latest day +$102.70M
as of 10-01Full history →
Futures basis (descriptive)
CME futures annualized basis (front)auxDescriptiveRecording
3.4%
1 days recorded; percentile after 90
as of 10-02Full history →
Deribit 3-month annualized basisauxDescriptiveRecording
5.4%
4 days recorded; percentile after 90
as of 10-02Full history →
Linkage & monitoring
BTC–Nasdaq 52w rolling correlationauxDescriptiveNormal linkage
0.39
52-week correlation 0.39
as of 09-25Full history →
Tokenized stocks / stablecoin capauxMonitorBelow threshold
0.86%
cap ratio 0.86%
as of 10-02Full history →
Watch only (tested, not usable)
L2
Cycle Position Cheap or expensive？· weekly
Cycle position: LowMVRV: Fair (level 1.58)；MVRV Z-Score: Low (level 1.02)；Realized Price (spot premium): Fair premium (spot premium +58.06% (level $53,637))；NUPL: Optimism / anxiety (level 0.367)
MVRVcoreFair
1.58
level 1.58
as of 10-01Full history →
MVRV Z-ScorecoreLow
1.02
level 1.02
as of 10-01Full history →
Realized Price (spot premium)coreFair premium
+58.06%
spot premium +58.06% (level $53,637)
as of 10-01Full history →
NUPLcoreOptimism / anxiety
0.367
level 0.367
as of 10-01Full history →
Mayer MultipleauxFair
1.19
level 1.19
as of 10-01Full history →
Puell MultipleauxFair
1.01
level 1.01
as of 10-01Full history →
Pi Cycle TopauxFar from top signal
0.447
ratio 0.447
as of 10-01Full history →
Realized Cap HODL Waves · pendingNeeds UTXO age distribution; paid Glassnode or own node
BTC price vs realized price
L3
Coin Flows Who is moving coins on/off exchanges？· weekly / daily
Coins leaving exchanges (hoarding)Exchange BTC net flow (7-day sum): Heavy outflow (withdrawals) (7-day sum -25,758 BTC, latest day -4,356 BTC)；Exchange BTC balance (30d change): Falling (coins leaving) (30-day change -1.02% (level 2,677,736 BTC))
Exchange BTC net flow (7-day sum)coreHeavy outflow
-25,758 BTC
7-day sum -25,758 BTC, latest day -4,356 BTC
as of 10-01Full history →
Exchange BTC balance (30d change)coreFalling
-1.02%
30-day change -1.02% (level 2,677,736 BTC)
as of 10-01Full history →
URPD · pendingPaid Glassnode metric; planned self-build
STH-MVRV / LTH-MVRV · pendingNeeds realized cap by holding age; paid
STH-SOPR / aSOPR · pendingPaid Glassnode metric
Miner reserves / illiquid supply · pendingPaid Glassnode metric
Cumulative exchange BTC net flow · full history (down = coins leaving)
Exchange BTC balance · full history Zones & percentiles →
L4
Sentiment & Derivatives Is it about to overshoot？· intraday
Warm: leverage and sentiment risingFear & Greed Index: Greed (level 72)；BTC perp funding rate: Normal (annualized 9.3%)；Altseason index (own): Altseason (share 76.0%)
Fear & Greed IndexcoreGreed
72
level 72
as of 10-02Full history →
BTC perp funding ratecoreNormal
9.3%
annualized 9.3%
as of 10-01Full history →
BTC open interest (7d change)core
—
Awaiting source（Hyperliquid）
HyperliquidDetails →
Altseason index (own)coreAltseason
76.0%
share 76.0%
as of 10-02Full history →
BTC dominanceauxTrend only
58.7%
level 58.7%
as of 10-02Full history →
Long/short ratio / liquidations · pendingCoinglass needs an API key
Options put/call · IV skew · pendingFree on Deribit; next version
Fear & Greed index
Macro deep dives
Hand-written macro notes go here; full research is under Reports.