L2 · Cycle Position
MVRV Z-Score
(Market cap − realized cap) ÷ historical std-dev of market cap — MVRV normalised across cycles.
Source：CoinMetrics（自算）Level：core
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
1.02
Lowlevel 1.02
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Bottom zone | < 0.00 | 14.0% |
| Low ◀ now | 0.00 ~ 1.50 | 49.0% |
| Fair | 1.50 ~ 3.00 | 25.9% |
| Warm | 3.00 ~ 5.00 | 7.5% |
| Overheated · top zone | ≥ 5.00 | 3.7% |
Normal range
Current
1.02
Percentile 45
Normal range (p10–p90)
-0.13 ~ 3.15
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
0.41 ~ 2.00
median 1.13
Extremes
-0.69 ~ 10.65
2011-07-18 – 2026-10-01, 5555 daily observations
p5 -0.25median 1.13p95 4.59
Window: 2011-07-18 – 2026-10-01, 5555 daily observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history level · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.