L1 · Real rate (state variable)
10y real yield · 4 states
Now a state variable, not the headline: 13w ≥ +0.40pp = surging, ≤ −0.40pp = falling, otherwise high/low plateau by level ≥1.0%. A surge is an independent headwind since 2022 and is combined with credit/optimism.
Source：FRED · DFII10Level：coreVerified · direction
Current reading · as of 2026-09-30
2.93%
Surginglevel 2.93%, 13w +0.67pp
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Falling | < -0.40pp | 9.4% |
| Plateau | -0.40pp ~ +0.40pp | 75.7% |
| Surging ◀ now | ≥ +0.40pp | 14.9% |
| 'Plateau' splits by level: ≥1.0% high, <1.0% low. | ||
Normal range
Current
2.93%
Percentile 95
Normal range (p10–p90)
-0.39pp ~ +0.51pp
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
-0.21pp ~ +0.26pp
median +0.04pp
Extremes
-0.77pp ~ +1.39pp
2018-01-05 – 2026-09-30, 457 weekly observations
p5 -0.47ppmedian +0.04ppp95 +0.68pp
Window: 2018-01-05 – 2026-09-30, 457 weekly observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 13-week change + level · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
10y real yield level
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.