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Event Calendar

Event calendar

Two separate views: BTC events were individually tested for volatility; Web3 industry events are a digest with no price testing. Generated Nov 14, 2:11 AM ET

Only events we have tested one by one on hourly BTC data since 2015. Fed decisions, CPI and payrolls widen the 2-hour range after release (since 2022), but direction is unpredictable and the days before are not more volatile.

Next tested event

US nonfarm payrolls

Validated · volatility
—
Dec 4, 8:30 AM ET

How much it may swing: In the 2 hours after the release, BTC's high-low range is typically 2.0% (normal: 1.3%); 1 in 4 times above 2.5%, 1 in 10 above 3.0%, largest since 2022 4.7%. about ±$1,346 at today's price

How to use it: No resting orders near price for 2 hours around the release (Dec 4 8:30 AM ET); the day as a whole is not more volatile.

How big the swings are

EventVolatilityTypical 2h range vs normal1 in 10 aboveMax since 2022
FOMC rate decision Validated · volatilityHigh
release 2.7%
normal 1.1%
6.3%10.2%
US CPI Validated · volatilityHigh
release 2.5%
normal 1.3%
4.9%9.0%
US nonfarm payrolls Validated · volatilityMedium
release 2.0%
normal 1.3%
3.0%4.7%
BTC quarterly options expiry FalsifiedNone
release 0.7%
normal 0.8%
1.7%2.5%

“High-low range” = how far BTC’s highest trade sits above its lowest in that window, up or down. 2.7% at $80,000 is about $2,000+ of swing.

All scheduled events

Dec 48:30 AMUS nonfarm payrollsValidated · volatilityMediumin 20d

In the 2 hours after the release, BTC's high-low range is typically 2.0% (normal: 1.3%); 1 in 4 times above 2.5%, 1 in 10 above 3.0%, largest since 2022 4.7%., about ±$1,346 at today's price

Since 2022 (57 releases), wider than normal 79% of the time. Next day up 40% of the time — direction is a coin flip.

How to use it: No resting orders near price for 2 hours around the release (Dec 4 8:30 AM ET); the day as a whole is not more volatile. · official source ↗

Dec 92:00 PMFOMC rate decisionValidated · volatilityHighin 25d

In the 2 hours after the release, BTC's high-low range is typically 2.7% (normal: 1.1%); 1 in 4 times above 3.8%, 1 in 10 above 6.3%, largest since 2022 10.2%., about ±$1,818 at today's price

Since 2022 (37 releases), wider than normal 97% of the time. Next day up 49% of the time — direction is a coin flip.

How to use it: No resting orders near price and no leveraged chasing for 2 hours around the release (Dec 9 2:00 PM ET). Don't bet on direction. · official source ↗

Dec 108:30 AMUS CPIValidated · volatilityHighin 26d

In the 2 hours after the release, BTC's high-low range is typically 2.5% (normal: 1.3%); 1 in 4 times above 3.5%, 1 in 10 above 4.9%, largest since 2022 9.0%., about ±$1,683 at today's price

Since 2022 (56 releases), wider than normal 79% of the time. Next day up 54% of the time — direction is a coin flip.

How to use it: No resting orders near price and no leveraged chasing for 2 hours around the release (Dec 10 8:30 AM ET). Don't bet on direction. · official source ↗

Dec 253:00 AMBTC quarterly options expiry (a common belief the data does not support)FalsifiedNonein 41d

Typical 2-hour high-low range 0.7%, same as normal., about ±$471 at today's price

The 'expiry-day volatility' story doesn't hold: since 2022 (19 expiries) the 2-hour high-low range is 0.7%, same as a normal day (0.8%).

How to use it: No action needed for expiry day. · official source ↗

Jan 88:30 AMUS nonfarm payrollsValidated · volatilityMediumin 55d

In the 2 hours after the release, BTC's high-low range is typically 2.0% (normal: 1.3%); 1 in 4 times above 2.5%, 1 in 10 above 3.0%, largest since 2022 4.7%., about ±$1,346 at today's price

Since 2022 (57 releases), wider than normal 79% of the time. Next day up 40% of the time — direction is a coin flip.

How to use it: No resting orders near price for 2 hours around the release (Jan 8 8:30 AM ET); the day as a whole is not more volatile. · official source ↗

Jan 138:30 AMUS CPIValidated · volatilityHighin 60d

In the 2 hours after the release, BTC's high-low range is typically 2.5% (normal: 1.3%); 1 in 4 times above 3.5%, 1 in 10 above 4.9%, largest since 2022 9.0%., about ±$1,683 at today's price

Since 2022 (56 releases), wider than normal 79% of the time. Next day up 54% of the time — direction is a coin flip.

How to use it: No resting orders near price and no leveraged chasing for 2 hours around the release (Jan 13 8:30 AM ET). Don't bet on direction. · official source ↗

Method & test results

Control: same weekday, within ±9 weeks, no other event, same time window. Range = high ÷ low. Eras 2015-17, 2018-21 and 2022-26 tested separately. Option expiry: Deribit, last Friday of the month, 08:00 UTC. Data: Coinbase BTC-USD hourly.

Event (since 2022)n2h range ÷ normalshare widerday ÷ normalprior 3d ÷ normalnext day up
US nonfarm payrolls571.5879%0.91.0540%
FOMC rate decision372.6697%1.331.0849%
US CPI561.8779%1.331.1754%
BTC quarterly options expiry190.8847%0.830.758%

Conferences, hackathons and altcoin token events (unlocks, listings, upgrades, votes) for the next 60 days, aggregated from Luma, CryptoEvents, IndustryEvents, Web3Voyager, CoinMarketCal and Coindar. Industry awareness only — not tested against prices, not trading signals.

Sources: Luma · CryptoEvents · IndustryEvents · Web3Voyager · CoinMarketCal · Coindar

Ongoing

Week of 11-09

Week of 11-16

Week of 11-23

Week of 11-30

Week of 12-07

Week of 12-14

Week of 12-21

Week of 01-11