Uncle Onchain中文EN

Changelog

Each version lists what actually shipped, newest first. Data changes are also logged in Corrections.

2026.11.14.72026-11-14

Alpha Radar: candidate pool (first 30 tokenless protocols)

  • NewNew “Pool” tab: the top 30 tokenless protocols reviewed one by one — token stance, who gets the revenue, wash / subsidy signs, the role open to users, the strongest counter-argument, open unknowns and evidence links. 12 watching, 18 to verify; neither is a recommendation or an airdrop signal. The radar table gains a pool-status column.
  • NewThe progress page now fixes the A4 test (no later changes): 90-day revenue retention, watching group vs control, judged only with 20+ in each. The 30-day review of the nine frozen 10-16 candidates is all “pending”: the original cards did not freeze contract or discovery price, so no result is fabricated; tokened candidates will have these frozen on entry from now on.
2026.11.14.62026-11-14 · announced

New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)

  • NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
  • NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
  • NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
2026.11.14.52026-11-14 · announced

Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs

  • NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
  • NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
  • Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
2026.11.14.42026-11-14

Core picks: selection rules v1 (draft) published

  • NewSelection rules v1 (draft) are now at the top of the Method tab: Binance-listed and within the top 100 by 90-day median combined volume; five classes judged by what actually drives price, top 3 per sub-class by liquidity (all consensus-reserve assets listed); buyback status is labelled, not used to exclude; speculative coins get a mechanism card. List generation is in progress.
2026.11.14.32026-11-14

Privacy-friendly analytics

  • NewAdded Umami analytics: page views plus a few clicks (share image, language switch, guide, report read-through, Core tabs) to learn which content is useful. No cookies, no personal data; noted on the About page.
2026.11.14.22026-11-14 · announced

Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay

  • DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket. see Corrections
  • DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card. see Corrections
  • NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.
2026.11.142026-11-14 · announced

New: core picks monitor

  • NewNew “Core Picks” page (/core/): the core-asset tracker (12 buyback / revenue protocols + 18 narrative / sector watch names), updated daily. Fundamentals: DefiLlama fees, revenue, holder revenue, activity and valuation multiples; flows: Binance volume and a combined spot + perp volume board (regulars / entrants / exits); technicals: MAs, RSI, drawdowns. Each asset has charts, narrative stage, unlocks and risk notes.
  • NewEntry checklist and risk alerts: the three gates read this site’s L2 cycle state, the BTC cycle-low close and the L1 net-liquidity gate; all scores and rules are marked as hypotheses, for sorting and condition checks only, not trade advice. Tokenized stocks / ETFs and gold are excluded everywhere.
2026.11.132026-11-13

Platform AI summaries · launchpad history backfill

  • DataLaunchpads: the last 60 days of history are re-synced daily from DefiLlama’s daily series. DefiLlama backfills new listings (Montra and Ascend had 2 days on listing, backfilled to 11-05 the next day); previously only the top 60 were refreshed, now every platform shown is. see Corrections
  • NewPlatform pages stay once a platform has crossed 0.1% share, and gain an AI research summary (selling points, how it differs, fee split, token, team, risks) written only from the DefiLlama data and site/docs text we collect, marked as unverified (generated once the API key is set).
  • FixedOn-chain scan drops Avalanche (under 0.01% of launchpad fees; free nodes can’t finish a day). An Elysium contract minting thousands of tokens a day with no trading pools is marked as batch minting, not a launchpad.
2026.11.132026-11-13

Leg tracker page: altcoin-window card removed

  • ImprovedThe leg tracker page now shows only the current BTC leg and the altcoin-wide leg, matching the macro page and the daily poster; the altcoin-window reading card is gone, its rule section stays.
2026.11.11.12026-11-11

Cycle chart: every leg shows its move

  • NewLaunchpads: every platform with ≥ 0.1% of 30-day or 7-day fees now has its own page (30 today, e.g. Montra, Graphite, Bags, Clanker), linked from the ranking: fee history, share and rank, chain split, product & fundamentals (sourced one-liner, angle tags, token, DefiLlama listing date, audits, raises, incidents; team info pending), how fees are charged and split (DefiLlama methodology), and links to the site, X, the DefiLlama source and GitHub. Below 0.1% still opens DefiLlama. Deep-tracked pages (pump.fun, Flap…) get the same sections.
  • NewOn-chain scan adds Elysium (Kinetiq’s Hyperliquid-linked chain, chainId 99901, free official node): its launchpads Montra and Ascend joined DefiLlama on 11-10 and already take about 1% of launchpad fees over 30 days.
  • FixedLeg labels on the cycle chart now use two lines (name over percentage) so narrow legs also show their move; percentages come straight from the leg data, so they match the cards and stay correct when zoomed.
2026.11.112026-11-11 · announced

Overall read: short-term context

  • ImprovedA "short-term context" paragraph now follows the four-layer read: where the current BTC leg ranks among comparable legs on duration and size, and where legs since 2017 that went this far ended up. Historical numbers only, not advice.
2026.11.10.12026-11-10

Legs-in-the-cycle chart: zoom and on-chart labels

  • ImprovedThe cycle chart on the macro page now zooms (+ / − / ← / → / reset, or drag to zoom on desktop), cycle states are written inside their bands, and each leg is labelled with its move.
2026.11.102026-11-10 · announced

Macro page: legs inside the cycle

  • NewA new chart tops the macro page: BTC price coloured by up-leg / down-leg over the daily L2 cycle-state background, so the cycle stage and the current short-term leg read at a glance. Default 1Y; 3Y / this cycle / all (since 2012).
  • ImprovedTime horizons are labelled: the leg cards are "short term · swings" (days; a leg usually lasts one to two weeks), the four-layer read is "long term · cycle" (months). When the two point different ways, a line compares the current leg with history on both duration and size.
  • ImprovedThe leg card keeps only BTC and altcoins overall; the altcoin window moves to the detail page. Card colours now match the site.
2026.11.09.22026-11-09 · announced

New: altcoin-wide up/down leg

  • NewThe leg tracker adds "Altcoins overall": an equal-weight index of ~50 top-volume Binance altcoins (re-ranked monthly by 30-day volume; halted or collapsed coins dropped at once), cut into up- and down-legs with the BTC rules at a 15% threshold. As of 11-08: day 42 of a down-leg, −28.2%.
  • DataThe basket excludes BTC, ETH, stablecoins, wrapped coins and tokenized stocks (NVDAB, TSLAB etc.). Delisted coins keep their history, so no survivorship bias. Thresholds of 10–25% all give the same current direction.
2026.11.09.12026-11-09 · announced

AI Agent page now includes Gang, Flap and Four.meme: traders, BNB volume, launches and graduations beyond AgentPad

  • NewAlso added Flap (only tokens launched with the Binance Agent ID gate, where every curve trade requires an Agent ID on-chain) and Four.meme (tokens its contract marks as created by an Agent wallet; trading not ID-gated, labelled separately), plus a by-platform table for the last 7 days. A separate undocumented Four.meme launch contract (whose traders don't all hold an Agent ID) is not counted until it can be shown to be part of the Agent ecosystem
  • DataDaily traders, BNB volume, new launches and graduations now include Gang (gang.fun, whose contracts only let Agent ID holders launch and trade), recomputed from 10-19. Previously only AgentPad was counted, which went almost idle after 10-24. Volume counts BNB-quoted tokens only; Four.meme Agent and Flap Agent are still being added see Corrections
2026.11.092026-11-09 · announced

Leg Tracker now covers down-legs too

  • ImprovedBTC is always in either an up-leg or a down-leg, so there is no more empty "no rally" state. Down-legs show days so far, drop from the peak to the lowest close (against historical bull drawdown percentiles), distance from the peak, and the reversal line (lowest close ×1.10). Currently day 48 of a down-leg, −13.6% (as of 11-08).
  • NewThe detail page adds "Every up-leg and down-leg": all daily closes since 2010-07-18 cut with the same 10% zigzag; duration and size percentiles, where the current leg sits, recent legs, and a bull/bear split. Replay check: 5,916 days and 305 legs as of 2026-09-27, matching the research original leg by leg.
  • DataData: closed Binance BTCUSDT daily candles from 2017-08-17, Coin Metrics PriceUSD before that (cached in the repo). New file /data/leg_history.json.
2026.11.08.22026-11-08 · announced

New: Leg Tracker and the altcoin window

  • NewNew page /leg-tracker/: days, gain and max in-leg drawdown of the current BTC rally, against the length and drawdown distribution of 103 historical bull-market rallies; the day-89 marker (hypothesis grade); claims we tested that failed are listed separately. The reading card sits at the top of the macro page, above the four-layer overall read (also on the home page).
  • NewAltcoin window: a 10-day BTC close gain ≥15% is an ignition; D0 is the highest close within 7 days; trim only from D0+24, cleared at D0+30, closed early if BTC closes below D0×0.90. A paper observation, not an entry signal; no coin list.
  • DataData: closed Binance BTCUSDT UTC daily candles, updated daily; replays of 2026-09-25 to 09-28 matched the poster readings item by item.
2026.11.082026-11-08 · announced

Launchpad directory (logos + angles) · Calendar adds regulatory / legislative votes

  • NewNew launchpad monitor adds a launchpad directory: cards for every launchpad we see on-chain and can name, with logo, chain and venue, angle tags (tokenized stocks / RWA, AI Agent, tax tokens, holder rewards…), a sourced one-liner, activity and site / X / DefiLlama links; searchable by name or angle and filterable by chain. Multiple contracts/configs of one platform are merged (e.g. Float’s LaunchLab configs; Flap’s Portal and VaultPortal). Logos and site blurbs are fetched daily; unnamed contracts move into the scan details.
  • NewBTC events now include regulatory / legislative votes (REG): congressional and committee votes on crypto bills, SEC final decision dates on crypto products, and votes elsewhere. Only items with an official date and source; marked untested, no statistics. Checked 2026-11-08: none qualify in the next 60 days.
  • NewSEC final approve/disapprove deadlines for crypto products are now scanned daily from the Federal Register API: only final deadlines, dropped automatically once an order or withdrawal appears.
  • NewCongressional committee votes on crypto bills (with official times) and presidential signing deadlines are now scanned daily from the Library of Congress API. Floor votes and non-US votes are checked by hand weekly.
2026.11.062026-11-06 · announced

New launchpad monitor · Chinese site in Singapore time · Pokémon report in English · L3 restored · earlier daily run

  • NewNew launchpad monitor (/launchpad/discovery/): before DefiLlama lists them, we scan the previous UTC day's new tokens on 22 EVM chains and group them by creating contract, flagging new and ramping factories; on Solana we split Meteora DBC and Raydium LaunchLab into front ends; plus new GeckoTerminal entries and self-described launchpads. An entry card sits on the launchpad matrix page
  • NewThe new launchpad monitor adds 'AI Agent launchpads · focus': launchpads tied to the AI-agent narrative on DefiLlama (strong / to confirm, incl. Clanker, Virtuals, Ignix, AGNT), plus on-chain factories and front ends named Agent / AI; the entry card shows an AI-agent summary. A chain coverage table shows which chains are scanned and which are above the bar to add
  • DataLaunchpad matrix: the top 8 in the sector trend, day-over-day breakdown and 'where the money is' now follow the cross-chain ranking's 7-day fees (was 90 days), with colors updated; ranking titles and headers now say fees, not volume
  • FixedThe AI Agent page updates daily again, with 10-29 to 11-05 filled in: collection moved to GitHub's cloud; full history independently recomputed from the registry deployment and matching the earlier 10-19 to 10-28 values exactly. Scope remains the verified AgentPad subset
  • DataThe launchpad matrix now tags platforms carried over from their last day (not yet published by DefiLlama, e.g. StonkFun) in the ranking, headline and day-over-day breakdown, with the count and share noted; real values replace them once published see Corrections
  • DataTime display: statistics stay in UTC+0; the Chinese site shows Singapore time (UTC+8), the English site US Eastern time see Corrections
  • NewEnglish edition of the Pokémon card RWA / CARDS report, with PDF
  • FixedL2 cycle and L3 supply layers update again: bitview upgraded its API around 10-31 (renamed query parameter, renamed age-band and address series, no date list for the supply distribution); L3 had stopped at 10-29 and L2 was running on cache. Both now use the new API, with history checked day by day; the supply distribution now uses the last closed day
  • FixedAn earlier daily run (03:40 UTC): GitHub schedules have recently started 6–8 hours late, pushing the previous day's data to around 1 PM ET
2026.11.032026-11-03 · announced

Two reports now in English, unified layout

  • NewEnglish editions of two earlier reports, now in the same layout as the rest: 'Launches are back, discovery isn't' and the pools.trade teardown; text and numbers unchanged, PDF in both languages
2026.11.022026-11-02 · announced

Launchpad slow-cooling / slow-warming stages · New report: launches are back, discovery isn't

  • DataLaunchpad stages add Slow cooling / Slow warming: a two-week move beyond ±10% without a 10% week is no longer called Steady; 'usually lasts' no longer counts 1–2 day flickers see Corrections
  • NewPublished 'Launches are back, discovery isn't: why the secondary discovery layer fell behind' (written 2026-09-08, data as of 2026-08-29; Chinese only, PDF available)
2026.10.292026-10-29 · announced

Launchpad long-run position · AI Agent page · unified time and price basis · pools.trade report

  • NewLaunchpad activity temperature now shows two scales: the 2-year temperature dial and a long-run position card (full-history sparkline, distance from the comparable peak, multiple of the normal lower edge); the cycles page adds a full-history chart (All / 2Y / 1Y, linear / log)
  • New'In this stage for N days' now shows the stage's usual duration with a progress bar; the footer states coverage: all launchpads DefiLlama lists, how many chains, and the share of category fees counted
  • NewNew AI Agent page: six core Binance Agent ID metrics (cumulative / new IDs, trading addresses, curve volume, launches, graduations); trading metrics cover AgentPad only for now
  • DataUnified time and price basis: data aligns to full UTC days closing at 00:00 UTC; the L2 ruler and L3 price bar use that close and show its time; clock times read Beijing time (Chinese) / US Eastern (English) see Corrections
  • NewPublished the pools.trade teardown report (written 2026-08-18; Chinese only)
2026.10.262026-10-26 · announced

New report: Pokémon card RWA · reports filterable by category

  • NewNew report on tokenized Pokémon cards and the CARDS token (Chinese only, PDF available)
  • NewReports page now filters by category: All / BTC / MEME / RWA / AI Agent; the URL keeps the category (e.g. /reports/#RWA) for sharing
2026.10.222026-10-22 · announced

L4 rebuilt, event calendar, launchpad activity temperature, exchange + ETF holdings

  • DataL4 now uses the tested version: only '30-day average funding below zero' (crowded shorts) changes the action; eight other readings describe temperature by two-year percentile; the old Fear & Greed / funding / OI score is retired see Corrections
  • NewEvent calendar: how much BTC typically swings around FOMC, CPI and payrolls (individually tested; magnitude, not direction), plus a digest of Web3 conferences and token events; 'Next 7 days' on the home page
  • NewLaunchpad activity temperature (how hot MEME launchpads are) now leads the launchpad matrix page and updates daily: the dial, current stage (Winter / Warming / Summer / Cooling / Steady), where this wave stands and how long stages usually last; plus 'Where the money is' — fee share by chain and platform. The research snapshot runs to 2026-10-17; after that the same category total is pulled daily and waves are recomputed with the same rules
  • NewL3 adds spot ETF holdings and 'exchanges + ETFs combined': did coins leaving exchanges go into ETFs or into on-chain self-custody?
2026.10.112026-10-11 · announced

L3 supply layer rebuilt, weekend special #3 and report PDFs

  • NewL3 rebuilt on new research: the STH cost +1σ pressure zone, STH cost as reference support and a large-move warning from supply concentration + 30-day volatility, each with a full-history page; plus a price-position bar, a supply map and recent touch records
  • DataThe L3 verdict moved from 7-day exchange net flow to price position vs the pressure zone + the large-move warning; exchange flows and whale/retail holdings stay as descriptive lines see Corrections
  • DataThe overall read's L3 paragraph now covers price position and the large-move warning instead of flow/cycle agreement see Corrections
  • NewNew report: 'I Back-tested 37 Bitcoin Cycle Rules One by One: 15 Have Stopped Working' (Chinese and English)
  • NewReports can be downloaded as PDF in the language you are reading, always in the light layout for reading and printing
  • ImprovedMacro dashboard: more breathing room in the overall read; bigger, clearer layer tabs that no longer jump the page when clicked; an arrow on 'What the tags mean'
2026.10.082026-10-08 · announced

Macro dashboard redesign: layer tabs, a four-layer overall read and cycle gauges

  • NewThe macro dashboard now switches between L1–L4 tabs; each shows the layer verdict, main evidence, switch conditions and the change from yesterday
  • NewThe overall read now combines all four layers: the cycle sets direction, macro sets pace, flows and sentiment confirm and caution
  • NewL2 is now a state machine; its six valuation & holder gauges open full histories, zone rules and interpretations; key levels are drawn as a ruler; the cycle chart now starts in 2012
  • NewA guide, this changelog and a feedback button (one click to mention us on X)
  • ImprovedIndicator pages switch between 1Y / 3Y / 5Y / All, show the longest history each source offers, and add an interpretation, zone-switch history and previous / next links
  • FixedThe same gauge showed different numbers on the home and macro pages: the home page now reads the latest data and log excerpts are marked with their freeze time
  • FixedL2 signals no longer say both 'seen this cycle' and 'not triggered': the rule type moves into the name and the actual status gets its own tag
  • DataOn-chain and percentage-change gauges get new statistics windows that drop the early small-base period see Corrections
  • DataThe overall read now combines all four layers see Corrections
  • DataL2 became a state machine and the single-gauge valuation cards were retired (MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, Mayer, Puell, Pi Cycle…; old links now explain where they went) see Corrections
2026.10.052026-10-05

English weekend report + faster pages

  • NewEnglish edition of 'Does Macro Actually Move Bitcoin?'
  • ImprovedDropped Google Fonts, cached styles and scripts separately and prefetch on hover for faster clicks
2026.10.042026-10-04

L1-B crypto funding channels + reports

  • Data'L1.5' became 'L1-B crypto funding channels'; the stablecoin main line is de-duplicated; ETF 13-week flows and the rotation matrix were added see Corrections
  • NewReports section with automatic dark versions
2026.10.022026-10-02

L1 rebuild + bilingual site

  • DataL1 rebuilt per the L1 spec: optimism first, real-yield states and the scenario grid, liquidity gate see Corrections
  • NewBilingual site, light/dark themes, full-history indicator pages with normal ranges