Week Review
2026-W42 weekly review
2026-10-12 ~ 2026-10-18 · logs 7
Generated Oct 19, 6:54 AM ET
Note: rules changed during this period — 2026-10-12 Rule change: L3 rebuilt (pressure-zone position + large-move warning); earlier L3 verdicts follow 7-day exchange net flow. Some verdict switches below come from the rule change, not the market (see Corrections).
Summary
Sentiment & Derivatives: Sentiment warm → Sentiment neutral. Launchpad fees -24.3% vs the previous week.
Uncle's note
Nothing yet · No hand-written review yet
The rule-based review is below.
Core indicators over the period
| Indicator | Start | End | Change | Low ~ high | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change | +4.59% | +4.59% | +0.0pt | +4.59% ~ +4.59% | Optimistic → Optimistic |
| VIX | 15.21 | 16.46 | +1.25 | 15.21 ~ 16.87 | Calm → Calm |
| Optimism composite z | +0.25 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.25 ~ +0.25 | Strong → Strong |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change | −0.15pp | −0.15pp | +0bp | −0.15pp ~ −0.15pp | Narrowing → Narrowing |
| 10y real yield · 4 states | +0.47pp | +0.47pp | +0bp | +0.47pp ~ +0.47pp | Surging → Surging |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change | −1.91% | −1.91% | +0.0pt | −1.91% ~ −1.91% | Mild contraction → Mild contraction |
| MVRV (price ÷ realized price) | 1.519 | 1.521 | +0.00 | 1.509 ~ 1.544 | Mid zone → Mid zone |
| Price / 200-week MA | 1.231 | 1.228 | -0.00 | 1.218 ~ 1.250 | Undervalued → Undervalued |
| Supply in profit | 67.9% | 68.6% | +0.8pt | 67.2% ~ 70.0% | Not a bottom zone → Not a bottom zone |
| 1-year realized profit / loss ratio | 0.885 | 0.858 | -0.03 | 0.858 ~ 0.885 | Bottom-zone signal · on → Bottom-zone signal · on |
| Long-term holder share (ex >7y) | 75.7% | 75.4% | -0.3pt | 75.3% ~ 75.7% | Bear-bottom signal · on → Bear-bottom signal · on |
| Green / black ratio (6m–10y cost ÷ 0–10y cost) | 0.955 | 0.954 | -0.00 | 0.953 ~ 0.955 | Not reached → Not reached |
| STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above) | +6.27% | +6.43% | +0.2pt | +4.73% ~ +7.29% | Pressure zone above → Pressure zone above |
| STH cost (reference support) | −9.18% | −9.09% | +0.1pt | −10.51% ~ −8.35% | Price above → Price above |
| Supply concentration (price ±5%) | 14.9% | 16.5% | +1.5pt | 14.9% ~ 17.0% | Concentrated → Concentrated |
| BTC 30-day annualized volatility | 38.8% | 31.6% | -7.2pt | 31.6% ~ 39.3% | Low volatility → Low volatility |
| Fear & Greed Index | 69 | 53 | -16.00 | 53 ~ 69 | Greed → Neutral |
| BTC perp funding rate | 7.7% | 4.2% | -3.5pt | 4.2% ~ 10.9% | Normal → Cool |
| BTC open interest (7d change) | −0.57% | +5.67% | +6.2pt | −8.00% ~ +7.12% | Stable → Stable |
| Altseason index (own) | 56.0% | 54.0% | -2.0pt | 54.0% ~ 56.0% | Alts leaning → Alts leaning |
Verdicts by layer
| Layer | Start → end | Distribution (days) | Switches |
|---|---|---|---|
| L1 · Macro Liquidity | Macro headwind · alert → Macro headwind · alert | Macro headwind · alert×7 | 0 |
| L2 · Cycle Position | Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) → Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) | Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)×7 | 0 |
| L3 · Supply Structure | Below the pressure zone · large-move warning → Below the pressure zone · large-move warning | Below the pressure zone · large-move warning×7 | 0 |
| L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives | Sentiment warm → Sentiment neutral | Sentiment warm×4, Sentiment neutral×3 | 3 |
Launchpads Top60 $26.11M · vs prior ▼ 24.3%
| Platform | Fees | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | $13.38M | $15.86M | ▼ 15.7% |
| Flap sh | $5.97M | $7.43M | ▼ 19.7% |
| Pons V2 | $3.22M | $4.00M | ▼ 19.4% |
| StonkFun | $956.6K | $2.21M | ▼ 56.8% |
| Pons V1 | $124.1K | $150.6K | ▼ 17.6% |
Alerts (23)
- 10-12HBTC funding flipped negative (2.3% → −1.7%)
- 10-12MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-13MBTC perp funding rate moved from 'Cool' to 'Normal' (−1.7% → 7.7%)
- 10-13HBTC funding flipped positive (−1.7% → 7.7%)
- 10-13ML2 signal on: +40% from cycle low and low ≥ 90 days old
- 10-13MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-13MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-13MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-14MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-14MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-15MFear & Greed Index moved from 'Greed' to 'Neutral' (62 → 53)
- 10-15MLaunchpad top-60 fees -41.5% day over day
- 10-15MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-15MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-15MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-15MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-16HFear & Greed Index moved from 'Neutral' to 'Greed' (53 → 63)
- 10-16MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-16MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-17MFear & Greed Index moved from 'Greed' to 'Neutral' (63 → 55)
- 10-17MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-18MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-18MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
Welcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
Data refreshes daily at 7:37 PM ET (Event calendar), 7:53 PM ET (Leg tracker), 11:13 PM ET (Core picks monitor), 11:43 PM ET (Alpha radar), 12:13 AM ET (RWA), 9:17 PM ET (L2 cycle state machine), 9:47 PM ET (L3 supply layer), 10:17 PM ET (L4 sentiment & derivatives) and 10:40 PM ET (Daily run); each daily log is frozen once written. Every metric carries an evidence grade; anything we can't source for real is marked "Pending" rather than filled with a proxy.
This site is a work in progress. Spotted a problem or have an idea? Find us on X at @Uncle_Onchain.
Data and process records only. Not investment advice.
Reopen anytime from “Guide” in the sidebar
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.