Week Review
2026-W43 weekly review
2026-10-19 ~ 2026-10-25 · logs 7
Generated Oct 26, 7:10 AM ET
Summary
Macro Liquidity: Macro headwind · alert → Macro tailwind · alert; Sentiment & Derivatives: Sentiment warm → Short-term temperature normal. Launchpad fees -7.5% vs the previous week.
Uncle's note
Nothing yet · No hand-written review yet
The rule-based review is below.
Core indicators over the period
| Indicator | Start | End | Change | Low ~ high | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change | +2.91% | +2.91% | +0.0pt | +2.91% ~ +2.91% | Optimistic → Optimistic |
| VIX | 18.44 | 19.03 | +0.59 | 16.68 ~ 19.03 | Calm → Calm |
| Optimism composite z | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 ~ +0.01 | Strong → Strong |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change | −0.13pp | −0.13pp | +0bp | −0.13pp ~ −0.13pp | Narrowing → Narrowing |
| 10y real yield · 4 states | +0.21pp | +0.21pp | +0bp | +0.21pp ~ +0.21pp | High plateau → High plateau |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change | −1.95% | −1.95% | +0.0pt | −1.95% ~ −1.95% | Mild contraction → Mild contraction |
| MVRV (price ÷ realized price) | 1.520 | 1.480 | -0.04 | 1.480 ~ 1.560 | Mid zone → Undervalued |
| Price / 200-week MA | 1.226 | 1.193 | -0.03 | 1.193 ~ 1.258 | Undervalued → Undervalued |
| Supply in profit | 68.4% | 64.3% | -4.1pt | 64.3% ~ 75.5% | Not a bottom zone → Not a bottom zone |
| 1-year realized profit / loss ratio | 0.859 | 0.853 | -0.01 | 0.853 ~ 0.860 | Bottom-zone signal · on → Bottom-zone signal · on |
| Long-term holder share (ex >7y) | 75.4% | 75.0% | -0.3pt | 74.9% ~ 75.4% | Bear-bottom signal · on → Bear-bottom signal · on |
| Green / black ratio (6m–10y cost ÷ 0–10y cost) | 0.954 | 0.950 | -0.00 | 0.950 ~ 0.954 | Not reached → Not reached |
| STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above) | +6.56% | +10.80% | +4.2pt | +4.00% ~ +10.80% | Pressure zone above → Pressure zone above |
| STH cost (reference support) | −8.99% | −5.40% | +3.6pt | −11.19% ~ −5.40% | Price above → Price above |
| Supply concentration (price ±5%) | 16.9% | 17.4% | +0.5pt | 16.1% ~ 19.0% | Concentrated → Concentrated |
| BTC 30-day annualized volatility | 31.5% | 25.3% | -6.3pt | 23.1% ~ 31.8% | Low volatility → Low volatility |
Verdicts by layer
| Layer | Start → end | Distribution (days) | Switches |
|---|---|---|---|
| L1 · Macro Liquidity | Macro headwind · alert → Macro tailwind · alert | Macro headwind · alert×2, Macro tailwind · alert×5 | 1 |
| L2 · Cycle Position | Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) → Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) | Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)×7 | 0 |
| L3 · Supply Structure | Below the pressure zone · large-move warning → Below the pressure zone · large-move warning | Below the pressure zone · large-move warning×7 | 0 |
| L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives | Sentiment warm → Short-term temperature normal | Sentiment warm×3, Sentiment neutral×1, Short-term temperature normal×3 | 3 |
Launchpads Top60 $24.83M · vs prior ▼ 7.5%
| Platform | Fees | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | $13.41M | $13.80M | ▼ 2.8% |
| Flap sh | $5.08M | $5.97M | ▼ 14.8% |
| Pons V2 | $2.68M | $3.22M | ▼ 16.6% |
| StonkFun | $1.21M | $1.05M | ▲ 14.6% |
| Pons V1 | $65.5K | $124.1K | ▼ 47.3% |
Alerts (20)
- 10-19HFear & Greed Index moved from 'Neutral' to 'Greed' (53 → 59)
- 10-19MBTC perp funding rate moved from 'Normal' to 'Cool' (9.2% → 4.2%)
- 10-19MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-20HOptimism composite z moved from 'Strong' to 'Weak' (+0.25 → −0.03)
- 10-20MFear & Greed Index moved from 'Greed' to 'Neutral' (59 → 55)
- 10-20MBTC perp funding rate moved from 'Cool' to 'Normal' (4.2% → 10.7%)
- 10-20MAltseason index (own) moved from 'Alts leaning' to 'BTC leaning' (54.0% → 34.0%)
- 10-20MLaunchpad top-60 fees +28.8% day over day
- 10-20MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-20MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-21MOptimism composite z moved from 'Weak' to 'Strong' (−0.03 → +0.13)
- 10-21H10y real yield · 4 states moved from 'Surging' to 'High plateau' (2.74% → 2.80%)
- 10-21HFear & Greed Index moved from 'Neutral' to 'Greed' (55 → 63)
- 10-21HL1 regime change: Macro headwind · alert → Macro tailwind · alert
- 10-21MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-22MExchanges saw a one-day net outflow of 7,115 BTC
- 10-23MExchanges saw a one-day net outflow of 7,115 BTC
- 10-24MExchanges saw a one-day net inflow of 6,256 BTC
- 10-25MLaunchpad top-60 fees -27.1% day over day
- 10-25MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
Welcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
Data refreshes daily at 7:37 PM ET (Event calendar), 7:53 PM ET (Leg tracker), 11:13 PM ET (Core picks monitor), 11:43 PM ET (Alpha radar), 12:13 AM ET (RWA), 9:17 PM ET (L2 cycle state machine), 9:47 PM ET (L3 supply layer), 10:17 PM ET (L4 sentiment & derivatives) and 10:40 PM ET (Daily run); each daily log is frozen once written. Every metric carries an evidence grade; anything we can't source for real is marked "Pending" rather than filled with a proxy.
This site is a work in progress. Spotted a problem or have an idea? Find us on X at @Uncle_Onchain.
Data and process records only. Not investment advice.
Reopen anytime from “Guide” in the sidebar
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.