Week Review
2026-W45 weekly review
2026-11-02 ~ 2026-11-08 · logs 7
Generated Nov 8, 11:12 PM ET
Summary
Supply Structure: Below the pressure zone · large-move warning → Below STH cost. Launchpad fees -14.4% vs the previous week.
Uncle's note
Nothing yet · No hand-written review yet
The rule-based review is below.
Core indicators over the period
| Indicator | Start | End | Change | Low ~ high | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change | −9.64% | −9.64% | +0.0pt | −9.64% ~ −9.64% | Weak → Weak |
| VIX | 21.15 | 28.18 | +7.03 | 16.61 ~ 28.18 | Risk-off → Risk-off |
| Optimism composite z | −1.13 | −1.13 | +0.00 | −1.13 ~ −1.13 | Weak → Weak |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change | −0.07pp | −0.07pp | +0bp | −0.07pp ~ −0.07pp | Narrowing → Narrowing |
| 10y real yield · 4 states | +0.20pp | +0.20pp | +0bp | +0.20pp ~ +0.20pp | High plateau → High plateau |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change | −0.84% | −0.84% | +0.0pt | −0.84% ~ −0.84% | Mild contraction → Mild contraction |
| MVRV (price ÷ realized price) | 1.420 | 1.404 | -0.02 | 1.404 ~ 1.490 | Undervalued → Undervalued |
| Price / 200-week MA | 1.137 | 1.119 | -0.02 | 1.119 ~ 1.192 | Undervalued → Undervalued |
| Supply in profit | 59.6% | 58.8% | -0.8pt | 58.5% ~ 67.4% | Not a bottom zone → Not a bottom zone |
| 1-year realized profit / loss ratio | 0.811 | 0.791 | -0.02 | 0.791 ~ 0.811 | Bottom-zone signal · on → Bottom-zone signal · on |
| Long-term holder share (ex >7y) | 74.7% | 74.4% | -0.3pt | 74.3% ~ 74.7% | Not a bottom zone → Not a bottom zone |
| Green / black ratio (6m–10y cost ÷ 0–10y cost) | 0.950 | 0.950 | -0.00 | 0.949 ~ 0.950 | Not reached → Not reached |
| STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above) | +15.93% | +17.39% | +1.5pt | +10.57% ~ +17.45% | Pressure zone above → Pressure zone above |
| STH cost (reference support) | −1.05% | +0.19% | +1.2pt | −5.62% ~ +0.25% | Price above → Price below |
| Supply concentration (price ±5%) | 9.7% | 10.6% | +0.8pt | 9.7% ~ 10.6% | Not concentrated → Not concentrated |
| BTC 30-day annualized volatility | 29.1% | 36.1% | +7.0pt | 28.4% ~ 37.4% | Low volatility → Low volatility |
Verdicts by layer
| Layer | Start → end | Distribution (days) | Switches |
|---|---|---|---|
| L1 · Macro Liquidity | Macro neutral · alert → Macro neutral · alert | Macro neutral · alert×7 | 0 |
| L2 · Cycle Position | Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) → Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) | Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)×7 | 0 |
| L3 · Supply Structure | Below the pressure zone · large-move warning → Below STH cost | Below the pressure zone · large-move warning×4, Below STH cost×3 | 1 |
| L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives | Short-term temperature normal → Short-term temperature normal | Short-term temperature normal×7 | 0 |
Launchpads Top60 $20.11M · vs prior ▼ 14.4%
| Platform | Fees | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | $9.88M | $11.29M | ▼ 12.5% |
| Flap sh | $3.52M | $4.61M | ▼ 23.6% |
| Pons V2 | $1.46M | $1.90M | ▼ 23.2% |
| StonkFun | $550.8K | $1.10M | ▼ 50.1% |
| Pons V1 | $90.9K | $72.6K | ▲ 25.3% |
Alerts (17)
- 11-02MExchanges saw a one-day net outflow of 16,660 BTC
- 11-02MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 11-03MLaunchpad top-60 fees +27.7% day over day
- 11-03MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 11-04HVIX moved from 'Calm' to 'Risk-off (>20)' (19.42 → 21.15)
- 11-04MExchanges saw a one-day net inflow of 5,999 BTC
- 11-04HVIX crossed above 20 (19.42 → 21.15)
- 11-04ML2 signal off: Price above 4 short-term cost lines for 7 days
- 11-04MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 11-05MVIX moved from 'Risk-off (>20)' to 'Calm' (21.15 → 16.61)
- 11-05MVIX fell back below 20 (21.15 → 16.61)
- 11-06HVIX moved from 'Calm' to 'Risk-off (>20)' (16.61 → 28.18)
- 11-06HVIX crossed above 20 (16.61 → 28.18)
- 11-06ML3 large-move warning off (30d vol 37.4%, concentration 9.6%)
- 11-06ML3 price position: Below the pressure zone → Below STH cost (+1σ zone 89,031)
- 11-06MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 11-07MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
Welcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
Data refreshes daily at 7:37 PM ET (Event calendar), 7:53 PM ET (Leg tracker), 11:13 PM ET (Core picks monitor), 11:43 PM ET (Alpha radar), 12:13 AM ET (RWA), 9:17 PM ET (L2 cycle state machine), 9:47 PM ET (L3 supply layer), 10:17 PM ET (L4 sentiment & derivatives) and 10:40 PM ET (Daily run); each daily log is frozen once written. Every metric carries an evidence grade; anything we can't source for real is marked "Pending" rather than filled with a proxy.
This site is a work in progress. Spotted a problem or have an idea? Find us on X at @Uncle_Onchain.
Data and process records only. Not investment advice.
Reopen anytime from “Guide” in the sidebar
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.