Launchpad activity temperature · cycles
How hot it is now, where this wave stands, then every past wave.
Data as of 2026-11-13
through Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET
"Cool" against the last two years; against comparable history since 2024-03, 80% below the peak and still 6.3× the normal lower edge.
Scans all 235 launchpads DefiLlama lists (26 chains); 79 of the 100 with fees that day are counted, 99.99% of category fees.All history: daily launchpad fees
Every wave since 2021 (each block = one wave)
2021-09-18 → 2026-11-13Show every wave (27)
| Start | Hottest | End | Days | Peak vs norm | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-09-10 | 2026-10-03 | 88 | 13.1× | Ended |
| 2026-01-07 | 2026-02-02 | 2026-02-16 | 41 | 3.2× | Ended |
| 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-14 | 2025-10-27 | 18 | 1.7× | Ended |
| 2025-07-15 | 2025-07-27 | 2025-08-25 | 42 | 2.5× | Ended |
| 2025-05-13 | 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-28 | 16 | 3.3× | Ended |
| 2025-01-04 | 2025-01-28 | 2025-02-11 | 39 | 2.4× | Ended |
| 2024-09-28 | 2024-11-24 | 2024-12-25 | 89 | 11.7× | Ended |
| 2024-07-19 | 2024-08-02 | 2024-09-02 | 46 | 1.8× | Ended |
| 2024-03-06 | 2024-05-17 | 2024-05-27 | 83 | 7.0× | Ended |
| 2024-01-26 | 2024-01-30 | 2024-02-16 | 22 | 2.1× | Ended |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023-12-21 | 2024-01-04 | 26 | 11.3× | Ended |
| 2023-10-24 | 2023-11-29 | 2023-12-06 | 44 | 14.2× | Ended |
| 2023-05-25 | 2023-06-30 | 2023-07-13 | 50 | 23.4× | Ended |
| 2023-05-11 | 2023-05-12 | 2023-05-20 | 10 | 4.2× | Ended |
| 2023-04-27 | 2023-04-27 | 2023-05-10 | 14 | 13.6× | Ended |
| 2023-03-27 | 2023-03-27 | 2023-04-16 | 21 | 2.1× | Ended |
| 2023-03-11 | 2023-03-13 | 2023-03-24 | 14 | 2.6× | Ended |
| 2023-01-31 | 2023-02-16 | 2023-03-01 | 30 | 192.3× | Ended |
| 2022-10-31 | 2022-11-06 | 2022-11-14 | 15 | 123.1× | Ended |
| 2022-10-09 | 2022-10-13 | 2022-10-22 | 14 | 755.2× | Ended |
| 2022-09-03 | 2022-09-04 | 2022-09-16 | 14 | 2.7× | Ended |
| 2022-07-05 | 2022-07-23 | 2022-08-02 | 29 | 3.9× | Ended |
| 2022-06-04 | 2022-06-16 | 2022-06-25 | 22 | 11.9× | Ended |
| 2022-04-09 | 2022-04-30 | 2022-05-13 | 35 | 2565.6× | Ended |
| 2022-01-21 | 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-07 | 18 | 8.1× | Ended |
| 2021-12-19 | 2021-12-21 | 2021-12-31 | 13 | 2.3× | Ended |
| 2021-11-27 | 2021-12-11 | 2021-12-18 | 22 | 12.5× | Ended |
Where is this wave?
Latest wave: started 2026-07-08 → hottest 2026-09-10 → ended 2026-10-03, 88 days, peaking at 13.1× its starting baseline.
Activity now is 80% below that wave’s peak.
Stage for each of the last 180 daysHow long does each stage usually last?
| Stage | Times since 2022 | Usually lasts |
|---|---|---|
| Winter Quiet, not yet recovering | 15 | 4–6 days |
| Warming Clearly picking up this week | 31 | 6–8 days |
| Summer Hot, not yet fading | 32 | 8–14 days |
| Cooling Clearly fading this week | 61 | 7–10 days |
| Slow cooling now No sharp weekly drop, but down over two weeks | 6 | 3–7 days |
| Slow warming No sharp weekly rise, but up over two weeks | 3 | Too few |
| Steady Middling, flat over two weeks | 11 | 4–8 days |
"Usually lasts" = the middle half of all past durations (shortest and longest quarter removed). Stretches of 1–2 days are mostly threshold flicker and are left out (from the count too); fewer than 5 stretches get no range. Describes the past, not how long this one has left.
How does a wave usually go? (past 27 waves)
Middle half of past waves again. The hottest day is only known in hindsight; use this for rhythm, not as a countdown.
Where the money is 7-day fee share · change vs 30 days earlier in pp
By chain (fee share)
By platform (fee share · top 8 + other)
Chain fee share, last 90 days
Shares only show how money splits across chains and platforms; for the sector as a whole, read the dial above. Multi-chain protocols are assigned to their largest chain by 30-day fees.
How long do new-token opportunities last in this environment?
1,060 + 299
1,060 randomly drawn new tokens plus 299 added per environment, analysed separately rather than pooled into a market-wide win rate.
How quickly a new token’s trading concentrates differs by environment; there is no universal “six-hour rule”.
Net-of-cost returns, how often strong tokens appear and how to spot them early are unverified, so there is no rating or shortlist here.
How is this calculated?
Temperature: take the past two years of daily activity (7-day average launchpad fees), drop the lowest and highest 5% of days, stretch the rest to 0–100 and see where today lands. 0–20 low, 20–40 cool, 40–60 moderate, 60–80 warm, 80–100 high.
Stage: weekly change ≤ −10% is Cooling; else temperature ≥ 70 Summer; else change ≥ +10% Warming; else temperature ≤ 20 Winter; else a two-week change ≤ −10% with the week still falling is Slow cooling, ≥ +10% with the week still rising is Slow warming; otherwise Steady. Each day uses only data up to that day.
Wave: the 7-day average stays above 1.5× the prior four-week norm (median) for 3 days to start; it ends after 7 straight days back within 1.2× the norm or below 60% of the wave’s peak. “Hottest stretch” = days around the peak within 80% of it.
Download daily stagesData scope and downloads
DefiLlama Launchpad category (early years include fundraising launchpads, not only MEME). New venues, added chains or backfills change the total. Fee rates differ, so fee share is not volume share. DEX volume and DOGE addresses are not mixed in.
Download daily series and waves · Download today’s reading · Research snapshot (to 2026-10-17) · Provenance and SHA256 · DefiLlamaWelcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
Data refreshes daily at 7:37 PM ET (Event calendar), 7:53 PM ET (Leg tracker), 11:13 PM ET (Core picks monitor), 11:43 PM ET (Alpha radar), 12:13 AM ET (RWA), 9:17 PM ET (L2 cycle state machine), 9:47 PM ET (L3 supply layer), 10:17 PM ET (L4 sentiment & derivatives) and 10:40 PM ET (Daily run); each daily log is frozen once written. Every metric carries an evidence grade; anything we can't source for real is marked "Pending" rather than filled with a proxy.
This site is a work in progress. Spotted a problem or have an idea? Find us on X at @Uncle_Onchain.
Data and process records only. Not investment advice.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.