L3 · Coin Flows
Exchange BTC balance (30d change)
Total BTC held on exchanges — the most direct stock measure of holder behaviour. A long decline = holders self-custodying. ~2-week lag on the free tier; trend only, not scored.
Source：CoinMetricsLevel：core
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
-1.02%
Falling (coins leaving)30-day change -1.02% (level 2,677,736 BTC)
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Falling (coins leaving) ◀ now | < -1.00% | 22.1% |
| Flat | -1.00% ~ +1.00% | 31.9% |
| Rising (coins returning) | ≥ +1.00% | 46.0% |
Normal range
Current
-1.02%
Percentile 22
Normal range (p10–p90)
-2.96% ~ +16.16%
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
-0.78% ~ +4.26%
median +0.74%
Extremes
-99.95% ~ +2569800.00%
2011-05-24 – 2026-10-01, 5610 daily observations
p5 -4.87%median +0.74%p95 +39.53%
Window: 2011-05-24 – 2026-10-01, 5610 daily observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 30-day change · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
Exchange BTC balance (full history)
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.