L1 · Watch only (tested, not usable)
2Y/10Y curve
Weekly correlation with BTC only 0.06; BTC did better during inversions, the opposite of the folk rule. ~18 independent samples. Watch only.
Source：FRED · T10Y2YLevel：watchWatch only
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
0.46%
Normallevel 0.46%
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Inverted | < 0.00% | 24.9% |
| Normal ◀ now | ≥ 0.00% | 75.1% |
Normal range
Current
0.46%
Percentile 62
Normal range (p10–p90)
-0.48% ~ 0.96%
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
0.00% ~ 0.55%
median 0.29%
Extremes
-1.08% ~ 1.59%
2018-01-02 – 2026-10-01, 2188 daily observations
p5 -0.71%median 0.29%p95 1.18%
Window: 2018-01-02 – 2026-10-01, 2188 daily observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history level · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.