STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above)
The short-term holder cost basis (coins unmoved for under ~155 days) × (4-year mean of STH-MVRV + 1 standard deviation), currently about STH cost × 1.17. The reading is how far the line sits from price: positive = above price. It is a zone (±2%), not a precise line.
The pressure zone is +23.98% from price. Since 2012 price came up to it 27 times and was not broken within 30 days 63% of the time, versus 42% for same-shaped placebo lines; since 2018 72% vs 44% — stronger in recent years. Once price breaks through and holds STH-MVRV 1.3, history mostly shows a continuing trend, so it is not a short signal.
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Broken through (close > 2% above) | < −2% | 6.6% |
| Inside the pressure zone (±2%) | −2% to +2% | 2.9% |
| Pressure zone above ◀ now | > +2% | 90.5% |
Normal range
Window: 2012-01-01 – 2026-11-12, 5430 daily observations。Start: Pre-2012 data excluded (cycle analysis and the state-machine replay start in 2012)。L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data (method rule); on-chain cycle gauges start in 2012; percentage-change gauges also drop the early small-base period (see Methodology · statistics window). Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history zone vs price · dashed = zone boundaries; tint = zone bias (green = tailwind / red = headwind / yellow = watch); blue band = normal range; grey = excluded from statistics
STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above)
For reference: BTC price (log scale) same time axis, linked hover
Zone switches last 10
| Date | From → to | Lasted | BTC then |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Inside the pressure zone → Pressure zone above | 37d (ongoing) | $83,274 |
| 2026-10-01 | Pressure zone above → Inside the pressure zone | 6d | $84,777 |
| 2026-09-28 | Inside the pressure zone → Pressure zone above | 3d | $83,517 |
| 2026-09-22 | Broken through → Inside the pressure zone | 6d | $86,205 |
| 2026-09-21 | Pressure zone above → Broken through | 1d | $86,505 |
| 2026-09-04 | Inside the pressure zone → Pressure zone above | 17d | $79,682 |
| 2026-09-03 | Pressure zone above → Inside the pressure zone | 1d | $81,243 |
| 2026-08-28 | Inside the pressure zone → Pressure zone above | 6d | $77,717 |
| 2026-08-27 | Pressure zone above → Inside the pressure zone | 1d | $80,297 |
| 2026-08-25 | Inside the pressure zone → Pressure zone above | 2d | $78,601 |
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.
✎ Feedback / report an errorWelcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
Data refreshes daily at 7:37 PM ET (Event calendar), 7:53 PM ET (Leg tracker), 11:13 PM ET (Core picks monitor), 11:43 PM ET (Alpha radar), 12:13 AM ET (RWA), 9:17 PM ET (L2 cycle state machine), 9:47 PM ET (L3 supply layer), 10:17 PM ET (L4 sentiment & derivatives) and 10:40 PM ET (Daily run); each daily log is frozen once written. Every metric carries an evidence grade; anything we can't source for real is marked "Pending" rather than filled with a proxy.
This site is a work in progress. Spotted a problem or have an idea? Find us on X at @Uncle_Onchain.
Data and process records only. Not investment advice.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.