STH-MVRV (price ÷ STH cost)
1 = short-term holders break even. After crossing 1.3 the next 30 days mostly kept rising (momentum); only 14 cases since 2018, so it is a hypothesis.
Now 0.945, in the 'Short-term holders under water' zone. It sits at the 31th percentile of 2012-01-01 – 2026-11-12; 41.0% of history fell in this zone. Percentiles describe position in its own history — not a trade signal.
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term holders under water ◀ now | < 1.000 | 41.0% |
| Short-term holders in profit | 1.000 ~ 1.300 | 46.3% |
| Trend zone (≥ 1.3, hypothesis) | ≥ 1.300 | 12.7% |
Normal range
Window: 2012-01-01 – 2026-11-12, 5430 daily observations。Start: Pre-2012 data excluded (cycle analysis and the state-machine replay start in 2012)。L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data (method rule); on-chain cycle gauges start in 2012; percentage-change gauges also drop the early small-base period (see Methodology · statistics window). Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history ratio · dashed = zone boundaries; tint = zone bias (green = tailwind / red = headwind / yellow = watch); blue band = normal range; grey = excluded from statistics
For reference: BTC price (log scale) same time axis, linked hover
Zone switches last 10
| Date | From → to | Lasted | BTC then |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | Short-term holders in profit → Short-term holders under water | 8d (ongoing) | $75,803 |
| 2026-08-19 | Short-term holders under water → Short-term holders in profit | 78d | $69,268 |
| 2026-05-16 | Short-term holders in profit → Short-term holders under water | 95d | $78,164 |
| 2026-05-02 | Short-term holders under water → Short-term holders in profit | 14d | $78,713 |
| 2025-10-28 | Short-term holders in profit → Short-term holders under water | 186d | $112,981 |
| 2025-10-26 | Short-term holders under water → Short-term holders in profit | 2d | $114,557 |
| 2025-10-14 | Short-term holders in profit → Short-term holders under water | 12d | $113,327 |
| 2025-10-12 | Short-term holders under water → Short-term holders in profit | 2d | $115,153 |
| 2025-10-10 | Short-term holders in profit → Short-term holders under water | 2d | $113,755 |
| 2025-09-28 | Short-term holders under water → Short-term holders in profit | 12d | $112,170 |
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.
✎ Feedback / report an errorWelcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
Data refreshes daily at 7:37 PM ET (Event calendar), 7:53 PM ET (Leg tracker), 11:13 PM ET (Core picks monitor), 11:43 PM ET (Alpha radar), 12:13 AM ET (RWA), 9:17 PM ET (L2 cycle state machine), 9:47 PM ET (L3 supply layer), 10:17 PM ET (L4 sentiment & derivatives) and 10:40 PM ET (Daily run); each daily log is frozen once written. Every metric carries an evidence grade; anything we can't source for real is marked "Pending" rather than filled with a proxy.
This site is a work in progress. Spotted a problem or have an idea? Find us on X at @Uncle_Onchain.
Data and process records only. Not investment advice.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.