L2 · Cycle Position
Mayer Multiple
Price ÷ 200-day moving average.
Source：CoinMetrics（自算）Level：aux
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
1.19
Fairlevel 1.19
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Deeply undervalued | < 0.80 | 16.8% |
| Below 200DMA | 0.80 ~ 1.00 | 20.6% |
| Fair ◀ now | 1.00 ~ 1.50 | 42.1% |
| Warm | 1.50 ~ 2.40 | 14.6% |
| Overheated | ≥ 2.40 | 5.8% |
Normal range
Current
1.19
Percentile 58
Normal range (p10–p90)
0.72 ~ 2.02
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
0.88 ~ 1.39
median 1.13
Extremes
0.23 ~ 13.07
2011-02-02 – 2026-10-01, 5721 daily observations
p5 0.64median 1.13p95 2.56
Window: 2011-02-02 – 2026-10-01, 5721 daily observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history level · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.