L2 · Cycle Position
NUPL
Net unrealized profit/loss = 1 − 1/MVRV. Same source as MVRV, used for sentiment phase only, not scored twice.
Source：CoinMetrics（自算）Level：core
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
0.367
Optimism / anxietylevel 0.367
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Capitulation | < 0.000 | 13.1% |
| Hope / fear | 0.000 ~ 0.250 | 15.7% |
| Optimism / anxiety ◀ now | 0.250 ~ 0.500 | 37.5% |
| Belief / denial | 0.500 ~ 0.750 | 29.5% |
| Euphoria | ≥ 0.750 | 4.2% |
Normal range
Current
0.367
Percentile 42
Normal range (p10–p90)
-0.088 ~ 0.666
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
0.220 ~ 0.552
median 0.417
Extremes
-1.585 ~ 0.993
2010-07-18 – 2026-10-01, 5920 daily observations
p5 -0.211median 0.417p95 0.726
Window: 2010-07-18 – 2026-10-01, 5920 daily observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history level · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.