L2 · Cycle Position
Pi Cycle Top
111DMA ÷ (2 × 350DMA); ≥1 has marked past cycle tops. Top-zone warning only.
Source：CoinMetrics（自算）Level：aux
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
0.447
Far from top signalratio 0.447
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Far from top signal ◀ now | < 0.900 | 87.3% |
| Near top signal | 0.900 ~ 1.000 | 5.1% |
| Top signal triggered | ≥ 1.000 | 7.6% |
Normal range
Current
0.447
Percentile 24
Normal range (p10–p90)
0.357 ~ 0.946
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
0.454 ~ 0.716
median 0.582
Extremes
0.286 ~ 1.462
2011-07-02 – 2026-10-01, 5571 daily observations
p5 0.326median 0.582p95 1.083
Window: 2011-07-02 – 2026-10-01, 5571 daily observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history ratio · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.