Supply in profit
Share of all coins whose cost basis is below the current price (in profit).
Now 54.0%. It dipped below 50% around all four bear bottoms, but fires several times per cycle, so it only says 'in the bottom zone' and cannot time the bottom. Adjacent days overlap heavily and independent episodes are few — read the direction only; not a trade signal.
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Bear-bottom signal | < 50.0% | 7.4% |
| Not a bottom zone ◀ now | ≥ 50.0% | 92.6% |
Normal range
Window: 2012-01-01 – 2026-11-13, 5431 daily observations。Start: Pre-2012 data excluded (cycle analysis and the state-machine replay start in 2012)。L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data (method rule); on-chain cycle gauges start in 2012; percentage-change gauges also drop the early small-base period (see Methodology · statistics window). Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history share · dashed = zone boundaries; tint = zone bias (green = tailwind / red = headwind / yellow = watch); blue band = normal range; grey = excluded from statistics
For reference: BTC price (log scale) same time axis, linked hover
This gauge has values from 2010-07-18 (data start or the days needed to fill its window).
Zone switches last 10
| Date | From → to | Lasted | BTC then |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Bear-bottom signal → Not a bottom zone | 89d (ongoing) | $64,434 |
| 2026-08-16 | Not a bottom zone → Bear-bottom signal | 1d | $62,818 |
| 2026-07-14 | Bear-bottom signal → Not a bottom zone | 33d | $64,934 |
| 2026-07-13 | Not a bottom zone → Bear-bottom signal | 1d | $62,127 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bear-bottom signal → Not a bottom zone | 10d | $62,565 |
| 2026-06-23 | Not a bottom zone → Bear-bottom signal | 10d | $62,593 |
| 2026-06-19 | Bear-bottom signal → Not a bottom zone | 4d | $63,307 |
| 2026-06-18 | Not a bottom zone → Bear-bottom signal | 1d | $62,835 |
| 2026-06-11 | Bear-bottom signal → Not a bottom zone | 7d | $63,475 |
| 2026-06-08 | Not a bottom zone → Bear-bottom signal | 3d | $63,110 |
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.
✎ Feedback / report an errorWelcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
Data refreshes daily at 7:37 PM ET (Event calendar), 7:53 PM ET (Leg tracker), 11:13 PM ET (Core picks monitor), 11:43 PM ET (Alpha radar), 12:13 AM ET (RWA), 9:17 PM ET (L2 cycle state machine), 9:47 PM ET (L3 supply layer), 10:17 PM ET (L4 sentiment & derivatives) and 10:40 PM ET (Daily run); each daily log is frozen once written. Every metric carries an evidence grade; anything we can't source for real is marked "Pending" rather than filled with a proxy.
This site is a work in progress. Spotted a problem or have an idea? Find us on X at @Uncle_Onchain.
Data and process records only. Not investment advice.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.