L2 · Cycle Position
Realized Price (spot premium)
Network-wide average cost basis (price ÷ MVRV). Spot below it = the average holder is under water, historically a major bottom zone. Judged on spot's premium over it.
Source：CoinMetrics（自算）Level：core
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
+58.06%
Fair premiumspot premium +58.06% (level $53,637)
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Below cost basis | < 0.00% | 13.1% |
| Near cost basis | 0.00% ~ +30.00% | 13.4% |
| Fair premium ◀ now | +30.00% ~ +140.00% | 54.0% |
| High premium | ≥ +140.00% | 19.5% |
Normal range
Current
+58.06%
Percentile 42
Normal range (p10–p90)
-8.05% ~ +199.36%
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
+28.28% ~ +123.13%
median +71.56%
Extremes
-61.32% ~ +14503.83%
2010-07-18 – 2026-10-01, 5920 daily observations
p5 -17.42%median +71.56%p95 +265.05%
Window: 2010-07-18 – 2026-10-01, 5920 daily observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history spot premium · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
Realized price
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.