Month Review
2026-10 monthly review
2026-10-01 ~ 2026-10-31 · logs 31
Generated Nov 1, 12:44 PM ET
Note: rules changed during this period — 2026-10-02 Rule change: L1 rebuilt; earlier logs follow the old rules; 2026-10-04 Rule change: L1-B crypto funding channels revised; 2026-10-12 Rule change: L3 rebuilt (pressure-zone position + large-move warning); earlier L3 verdicts follow 7-day exchange net flow; 2026-10-08 Rule change: L2 became a state machine; earlier L2 verdicts follow the old rule (MVRV Z-Score zone). Some verdict switches below come from the rule change, not the market (see Corrections).
Summary
Macro Liquidity: Liquidity contracting → Macro tailwind · alert; Cycle Position: Cycle low → Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) (due to a rule change); Supply Structure: Coins leaving exchanges → Below the pressure zone · large-move warning; Sentiment & Derivatives: Sentiment warm → Short-term temperature normal. Launchpad fees -56.2% vs the previous month.
Uncle's note
Nothing yet · No hand-written review yet
The rule-based review is below.
Core indicators over the period
| Indicator | Start | End | Change | Low ~ high | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change | −6.89% | −6.89% | +0.0pt | −6.89% ~ −6.89% | Weak → Weak |
| VIX | 16.39 | 17.20 | +0.81 | 14.84 ~ 19.99 | Calm → Calm |
| Optimism composite z | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.13 ~ −0.13 | Weak → Weak |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change | −0.07pp | −0.14pp | -7bp | −0.14pp ~ −0.07pp | Narrowing → Narrowing |
| NFCI · 13w change | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 ~ +0.05 | Tightening → Tightening |
| 10y real yield · 4 states | +0.66pp | +0.16pp | -50bp | +0.16pp ~ +0.66pp | Surging → High plateau |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change | −0.84% | −1.44% | -0.6pt | −1.95% ~ −0.84% | Mild contraction → Mild contraction |
| MVRV (price ÷ realized price) | 1.581 | 1.433 | -0.15 | 1.427 ~ 1.611 | Mid zone → Undervalued |
| Price / 200-week MA | 1.286 | 1.149 | -0.14 | 1.146 ~ 1.309 | Undervalued → Undervalued |
| Supply in profit | 75.8% | 62.2% | -13.6pt | 62.2% ~ 78.2% | Not a bottom zone → Not a bottom zone |
| 1-year realized profit / loss ratio | 0.940 | 0.824 | -0.12 | 0.824 ~ 0.940 | Bottom-zone signal · on → Bottom-zone signal · on |
| Long-term holder share (ex >7y) | 76.2% | 74.9% | -1.3pt | 74.9% ~ 76.3% | Bear-bottom signal · on → Not a bottom zone |
| Green / black ratio (6m–10y cost ÷ 0–10y cost) | 0.959 | 0.950 | -0.01 | 0.950 ~ 0.959 | Not reached → Not reached |
| STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above) | +1.25% | +13.64% | +12.4pt | −0.36% ~ +13.64% | Inside the pressure zone → Pressure zone above |
| STH cost (reference support) | −13.37% | −2.99% | +10.4pt | −14.78% ~ −2.99% | Price above → Price above |
| Supply concentration (price ±5%) | 14.3% | 19.7% | +5.4pt | 14.3% ~ 19.7% | Concentrated → Concentrated |
| BTC 30-day annualized volatility | 41.0% | 28.5% | -12.4pt | 23.1% ~ 41.0% | Not low → Low volatility |
Verdicts by layer
| Layer | Start → end | Distribution (days) | Switches |
|---|---|---|---|
| L1 · Macro Liquidity | Liquidity contracting → Macro tailwind · alert | Liquidity contracting×2, Macro cautious · alert×5, Macro headwind · alert×13, Macro tailwind · alert×10, Macro neutral · alert×1 | 5 |
| L2 · Cycle Position | Cycle low → Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) | Cycle low×7, Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)×24 | 1 |
| L3 · Supply Structure | Coins leaving exchanges → Below the pressure zone · large-move warning | Coins leaving exchanges×11, Below the pressure zone · large-move warning×20 | 1 |
| L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives | Sentiment warm → Short-term temperature normal | Sentiment warm×18, Sentiment neutral×4, Short-term temperature normal×9 | 7 |
Launchpads Top60 $139.94M · vs prior ▼ 56.2%
| Platform | Fees | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | $62.76M | $48.13M | ▲ 30.4% |
| Flap sh | $29.28M | $42.89M | ▼ 31.7% |
| Pons V2 | $16.23M | $136.66M | ▼ 88.1% |
| StonkFun | $8.39M | $32.51M | ▼ 74.2% |
| Pons V1 | $527.1K | $5.30M | ▼ 90.1% |
Alerts (85)
- 10-01MData note (Chinese only)
- 10-01MData note (Chinese only)
- 10-02MData note (Chinese only)
- 10-02MData note (Chinese only)
- 10-03MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-03MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-04MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-05MExchange BTC balance (30d change) moved from 'Falling (coins leaving)' to 'Flat' (-1.14% → -0.96%)
- 10-05MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-06MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-06MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-07MExchange BTC balance (30d change) moved from 'Flat' to 'Falling (coins leaving)' (-0.98% → -1.52%)
- 10-07MExchanges saw a one-day net outflow of 14,211 BTC
- 10-07MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-07MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-08HNFCI · 13w change moved from 'Easing' to 'Tightening' (-0.03 → +0.02)
- 10-08MAltseason index (own) moved from 'Alts leaning' to 'BTC leaning' (62.0% → 48.0%)
- 10-08HL1 regime change: Macro cautious · alert → Macro headwind · alert
- 10-08MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-08MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-09MBTC open interest (7d change) moved from 'Leverage piling up' to 'Stable' (+17.85% → −0.64%)
- 10-09MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-09MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-09MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-10MBTC perp funding rate moved from 'Normal' to 'Cool' (9.8% → 4.6%)
- 10-10MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-10MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-10MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-11HAltseason index (own) moved from 'BTC leaning' to 'Alts leaning' (48.0% → 54.0%)
- 10-11MLaunchpad top-60 fees -25.0% day over day
- 10-11MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-11MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-12HBTC funding flipped negative (2.3% → −1.7%)
- 10-12MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-13MBTC perp funding rate moved from 'Cool' to 'Normal' (−1.7% → 7.7%)
- 10-13HBTC funding flipped positive (−1.7% → 7.7%)
- 10-13ML2 signal on: +40% from cycle low and low ≥ 90 days old
- 10-13MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-13MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-13MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-14MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-14MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-15MFear & Greed Index moved from 'Greed' to 'Neutral' (62 → 53)
- 10-15MLaunchpad top-60 fees -41.5% day over day
- 10-15MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-15MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-15MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-15MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-16HFear & Greed Index moved from 'Neutral' to 'Greed' (53 → 63)
- 10-16MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-16MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-17MFear & Greed Index moved from 'Greed' to 'Neutral' (63 → 55)
- 10-17MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-18MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-18MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-19HFear & Greed Index moved from 'Neutral' to 'Greed' (53 → 59)
- 10-19MBTC perp funding rate moved from 'Normal' to 'Cool' (9.2% → 4.2%)
- 10-19MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-20HOptimism composite z moved from 'Strong' to 'Weak' (+0.25 → −0.03)
- 10-20MFear & Greed Index moved from 'Greed' to 'Neutral' (59 → 55)
- 10-20MBTC perp funding rate moved from 'Cool' to 'Normal' (4.2% → 10.7%)
- 10-20MAltseason index (own) moved from 'Alts leaning' to 'BTC leaning' (54.0% → 34.0%)
- 10-20MLaunchpad top-60 fees +28.8% day over day
- 10-20MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-20MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-21MOptimism composite z moved from 'Weak' to 'Strong' (−0.03 → +0.13)
- 10-21H10y real yield · 4 states moved from 'Surging' to 'High plateau' (2.74% → 2.80%)
- 10-21HFear & Greed Index moved from 'Neutral' to 'Greed' (55 → 63)
- 10-21HL1 regime change: Macro headwind · alert → Macro tailwind · alert
- 10-21MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-22MExchanges saw a one-day net outflow of 7,115 BTC
- 10-23MExchanges saw a one-day net outflow of 7,115 BTC
- 10-24MExchanges saw a one-day net inflow of 6,256 BTC
- 10-25MLaunchpad top-60 fees -27.1% day over day
- 10-25MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-26MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-27HOptimism composite z moved from 'Strong' to 'Weak' (+0.01 → −0.01)
- 10-27HL1 regime change: Macro tailwind · alert → Macro neutral · alert
- 10-27MLaunchpad top-60 fees +29.4% day over day
- 10-28MOptimism composite z moved from 'Weak' to 'Strong' (−0.01 → +0.10)
- 10-28HL1 regime change: Macro neutral · alert → Macro tailwind · alert
- 10-28MExchanges saw a one-day net outflow of 17,263 BTC
- 10-29MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-30MExchanges saw a one-day net outflow of 23,581 BTC
- 10-31MExchanges saw a one-day net inflow of 5,594 BTC
Welcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
Data refreshes daily at 7:37 PM ET (Event calendar), 7:53 PM ET (Leg tracker), 11:13 PM ET (Core picks monitor), 11:43 PM ET (Alpha radar), 12:13 AM ET (RWA), 9:17 PM ET (L2 cycle state machine), 9:47 PM ET (L3 supply layer), 10:17 PM ET (L4 sentiment & derivatives) and 10:40 PM ET (Daily run); each daily log is frozen once written. Every metric carries an evidence grade; anything we can't source for real is marked "Pending" rather than filled with a proxy.
This site is a work in progress. Spotted a problem or have an idea? Find us on X at @Uncle_Onchain.
Data and process records only. Not investment advice.
Reopen anytime from “Guide” in the sidebar
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.