Week Review
2026-W40 weekly review
2026-09-28 ~ 2026-10-04 · logs 6
Generated 2026-10-05 07:21 UTC
Summary
Macro Liquidity: 流动性收缩 → 宏观中性偏谨慎·警戒. Launchpad fees -11.3% vs the previous week.
Uncle's note
No hand-written review yet.
Core indicators over the period
| Indicator | Start | End | Change | Low ~ high | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change | +4.92% | +4.92% | +0.0pt | +4.92% ~ +4.92% | Optimistic → Optimistic |
| VIX | 16.07 | 16.39 | +0.32 | 16.04 ~ 16.39 | Calm → Calm |
| Optimism composite z | +0.30 | +0.30 | +0.00 | +0.30 ~ +0.30 | Strong → Strong |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change | -0.05pp | -0.05pp | +0bp | -0.05pp ~ -0.05pp | Narrowing → Narrowing |
| 10y real yield · 4 states | +0.62pp | +0.62pp | +0bp | +0.62pp ~ +0.62pp | Surging → Surging |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change | -0.84% | -0.84% | +0.0pt | -0.84% ~ -0.84% | Mild contraction → Mild contraction |
| MVRV | 1.56 | 1.61 | +0.05 | 1.56 ~ 1.61 | Fair → Fair |
| MVRV Z-Score | 0.98 | 1.07 | +0.09 | 0.98 ~ 1.07 | Low → Low |
| Realized Price (spot premium) | +55.89% | +61.11% | +5.2pt | +55.89% ~ +61.11% | Fair premium → Fair premium |
| NUPL | 0.359 | 0.379 | +0.02 | 0.359 ~ 0.379 | Optimism / anxiety → Optimism / anxiety |
| Exchange BTC net flow (7-day sum) | -53,433 BTC | -19,602 BTC | +33,831 BTC | -53,433 BTC ~ -19,602 BTC | Heavy outflow → Heavy outflow |
| Exchange BTC balance (30d change) | -0.78% | -0.96% | -0.2pt | -1.14% ~ -0.65% | Flat → Flat |
| Fear & Greed Index | 74 | 65 | -9.00 | 65 ~ 74 | Greed → Greed |
| BTC perp funding rate | 5.1% | 10.6% | +5.5pt | 5.1% ~ 10.6% | Normal → Normal |
| Altseason index (own) | 72.0% | 74.0% | +2.0pt | 68.0% ~ 76.0% | Alts leaning → Alts leaning |
Verdicts by layer
| Layer | Start → end | Distribution (days) | Switches |
|---|---|---|---|
| L1 · Macro Liquidity | 流动性收缩 → 宏观中性偏谨慎·警戒 | 流动性收缩×4、宏观中性偏谨慎·警戒×2 | 1 |
| L2 · Cycle Position | 周期偏低 → 周期偏低 | 周期偏低×6 | 0 |
| L3 · Coin Flows | 筹码流出交易所 → 筹码流出交易所 | 筹码流出交易所×6 | 0 |
| L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives | 情绪偏热 → 情绪偏热 | 情绪偏热×6 | 0 |
Launchpads Top60 $49.57M · vs prior ▼ 11.3%
| Platform | Fees | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | $15.87M | $13.25M | ▲ 19.8% |
| Flap sh | $10.78M | $7.25M | ▲ 48.7% |
| Pons V2 | $9.20M | $14.34M | ▼ 35.8% |
| StonkFun | $4.46M | $8.01M | ▼ 44.3% |
| Pons V1 | $285.2K | $493.9K | ▼ 42.2% |
Alerts（9）
- 09-30M发射台：StonkFun 数据源延迟（最后一天 2026-09-28），相关列标「延迟」，没有拿旧值顶替
- 09-30M发射台：赛道 Top60 分母缺 2 家（约占前一日 9%），份额偏高
- 10-01M发射台：StonkFun 数据源延迟（最后一天 2026-09-29），相关列标「延迟」，没有拿旧值顶替
- 10-01M发射台：赛道 Top60 分母缺 1 家（约占前一日 14%），份额偏高
- 10-02M发射台：StonkFun 数据源延迟（最后一天 2026-09-30），相关列标「延迟」，没有拿旧值顶替
- 10-02M发射台：赛道 Top60 分母缺 2 家（约占前一日 12%），份额偏高
- 10-03MLaunchpad: StonkFun 数据源延迟（最后一天 2026-10-01），相关列标「延迟」，没有拿旧值顶替
- 10-03MLaunchpad: 赛道 Top60 分母缺 2 家（约占前一日 11%），份额偏高
- 10-04MLaunchpad: PONS 当日销毁 966K 枚，超过此前 7 日均 320K 的 3 倍