Week Review
2026-W41 weekly review
2026-10-05 ~ 2026-10-11 · logs 7
Generated Oct 12, 6:42 AM ET
Note: rules changed during this period — 2026-10-08 Rule change: L2 became a state machine; earlier L2 verdicts follow the old rule (MVRV Z-Score zone). Some verdict switches below come from the rule change, not the market (see Corrections).
Summary
Macro Liquidity: Macro cautious · alert → Macro headwind · alert; Cycle Position: Cycle low → Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) (due to a rule change). Launchpad fees -32.3% vs the previous week.
Uncle's note
Nothing yet · No hand-written review yet
The rule-based review is below.
Core indicators over the period
| Indicator | Start | End | Change | Low ~ high | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change | +3.49% | +3.49% | +0.0pt | +3.49% ~ +3.49% | Optimistic → Optimistic |
| VIX | 15.52 | 15.41 | -0.11 | 15.01 ~ 15.52 | Calm → Calm |
| Optimism composite z | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.23 ~ +0.23 | Strong → Strong |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change | −0.10pp | −0.10pp | +0bp | −0.10pp ~ −0.10pp | Narrowing → Narrowing |
| 10y real yield · 4 states | +0.55pp | +0.55pp | +0bp | +0.55pp ~ +0.55pp | Surging → Surging |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change | −1.58% | −1.58% | +0.0pt | −1.58% ~ −1.58% | Mild contraction → Mild contraction |
| MVRV (price ÷ realized price) | 1.597 | 1.553 | -0.04 | 1.519 ~ 1.597 | Mid zone → Mid zone |
| Price / 200-week MA | 1.298 | 1.259 | -0.04 | 1.233 ~ 1.298 | Undervalued → Undervalued |
| Supply in profit | 77.5% | 70.8% | -6.7pt | 68.4% ~ 77.5% | Not a bottom zone → Not a bottom zone |
| 1-year realized profit / loss ratio | 0.921 | 0.886 | -0.04 | 0.884 ~ 0.921 | Bottom-zone signal · on → Bottom-zone signal · on |
| Long-term holder share (ex >7y) | 76.3% | 75.6% | -0.7pt | 75.6% ~ 76.3% | Bear-bottom signal · on → Bear-bottom signal · on |
| Green / black ratio (6m–10y cost ÷ 0–10y cost) | 0.957 | 0.955 | -0.00 | 0.954 ~ 0.957 | Not reached → Not reached |
| STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above) | +0.73% | +3.97% | +3.2pt | +0.73% ~ +6.20% | Inside the pressure zone → Pressure zone above |
| STH cost (reference support) | −13.86% | −11.15% | +2.7pt | −13.86% ~ −9.21% | Price above → Price above |
| Supply concentration (price ±5%) | 15.6% | 15.6% | +0.0pt | 15.6% ~ 15.6% | Concentrated → Concentrated |
| BTC 30-day annualized volatility | 37.1% | 37.8% | +0.7pt | 37.1% ~ 38.6% | Low volatility → Low volatility |
| Fear & Greed Index | 70 | 61 | -9.00 | 59 ~ 73 | Greed → Greed |
| BTC perp funding rate | 10.9% | −1.7% | -12.7pt | −1.7% ~ 10.9% | Normal → Cool |
| BTC open interest (7d change) | +22.38% | −0.70% | -23.1pt | −0.70% ~ +22.38% | Leverage piling up → Stable |
| Altseason index (own) | 62.0% | 54.0% | -8.0pt | 44.0% ~ 62.0% | Alts leaning → Alts leaning |
Verdicts by layer
| Layer | Start → end | Distribution (days) | Switches |
|---|---|---|---|
| L1 · Macro Liquidity | Macro cautious · alert → Macro headwind · alert | Macro cautious · alert×3, Macro headwind · alert×4 | 1 |
| L2 · Cycle Position | Cycle low → Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) | Cycle low×3, Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)×4 | 1 |
| L3 · Supply Structure | Coins leaving exchanges → Coins leaving exchanges | Coins leaving exchanges×7 | 0 |
| L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives | Sentiment warm → Sentiment warm | Sentiment warm×7 | 0 |
Launchpads Top60 $34.00M · vs prior ▼ 32.3%
| Platform | Fees | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | $15.86M | $15.87M | ▼ 0.1% |
| Flap sh | $7.43M | $10.78M | ▼ 31.1% |
| Pons V2 | $4.00M | $9.20M | ▼ 56.6% |
| StonkFun | $1.78M | $5.01M | ▼ 64.5% |
| Pons V1 | $150.6K | $285.1K | ▼ 47.2% |
Alerts (25)
- 10-05MExchange BTC balance (30d change) moved from 'Falling (coins leaving)' to 'Flat' (-1.14% → -0.96%)
- 10-05MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-06MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-06MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-07MExchange BTC balance (30d change) moved from 'Flat' to 'Falling (coins leaving)' (-0.98% → -1.52%)
- 10-07MExchanges saw a one-day net outflow of 14,211 BTC
- 10-07MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-07MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-08HNFCI · 13w change moved from 'Easing' to 'Tightening' (-0.03 → +0.02)
- 10-08MAltseason index (own) moved from 'Alts leaning' to 'BTC leaning' (62.0% → 48.0%)
- 10-08HL1 regime change: Macro cautious · alert → Macro headwind · alert
- 10-08MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-08MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-09MBTC open interest (7d change) moved from 'Leverage piling up' to 'Stable' (+17.85% → −0.64%)
- 10-09MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-09MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-09MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-10MBTC perp funding rate moved from 'Normal' to 'Cool' (9.8% → 4.6%)
- 10-10MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-10MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-10MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-11HAltseason index (own) moved from 'BTC leaning' to 'Alts leaning' (48.0% → 54.0%)
- 10-11MLaunchpad top-60 fees -25.0% day over day
- 10-11MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
- 10-11MLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
Welcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
Data refreshes daily at 7:37 PM ET (Event calendar), 7:53 PM ET (Leg tracker), 11:13 PM ET (Core picks monitor), 11:43 PM ET (Alpha radar), 12:13 AM ET (RWA), 9:17 PM ET (L2 cycle state machine), 9:47 PM ET (L3 supply layer), 10:17 PM ET (L4 sentiment & derivatives) and 10:40 PM ET (Daily run); each daily log is frozen once written. Every metric carries an evidence grade; anything we can't source for real is marked "Pending" rather than filled with a proxy.
This site is a work in progress. Spotted a problem or have an idea? Find us on X at @Uncle_Onchain.
Data and process records only. Not investment advice.
Reopen anytime from “Guide” in the sidebar
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.