L1 · Linkage & monitoring
BTC–Nasdaq 52w rolling correlation
52-week rolling correlation of weekly log returns. When it drops, Nasdaq-based rules lose weight; it fell to ~0 in 2024. 0.2 is this site's alert line.
Source：CoinMetrics + FRED（自算）Level：auxDescriptive
Current reading · as of 2026-09-25
0.39
Normal linkage52-week correlation 0.39
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Low (down-weight Nasdaq rules) | < 0.20 | 43.4% |
| Normal linkage ◀ now | ≥ 0.20 | 56.6% |
Normal range
Current
0.39
Percentile 89
Normal range (p10–p90)
-0.01 ~ 0.40
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
0.06 ~ 0.33
median 0.23
Extremes
-0.21 ~ 0.59
2018-01-05 – 2026-09-25, 456 weekly observations
p5 -0.09median 0.23p95 0.47
Window: 2018-01-05 – 2026-09-25, 456 weekly observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 52-week correlation · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.