L1 · L1-B crypto funding channels · watched separately (not counted)
Payment / institutional stablecoins · 13w
Payment stablecoins are not trading money: 2.8× in a year, −0.43 correlation with BTC over 13 weeks (they grow when BTC is weak). Excluded from the main line.
Source：DefiLlama（逐币）Level：auxMonitor
Current reading · as of 2026-10-04
+21.76%
Expanding13-week change +21.76% (level $11.27B), 52w +169.1%
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Contracting | < -1.00% | 32.3% |
| Flat | -1.00% ~ +1.00% | 2.7% |
| Expanding ◀ now | ≥ +1.00% | 65.0% |
Normal range
Current
+21.76%
Percentile 60
Normal range (p10–p90)
-19.93% ~ +86.53%
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
-8.33% ~ +43.66%
median +14.12%
Extremes
-48.61% ~ +61887.58%
2018-12-14 – 2026-10-04, 409 weekly observations
p5 -31.31%median +14.12%p95 +128.67%
Window: 2018-12-14 – 2026-10-04, 409 weekly observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 13-week change · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
Payment / institutional stablecoins · 13w
For reference: BTC price (log scale, proportional to % moves) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.