Spot ETF · 13-week net flow
US spot BTC ETF net flows. ETF money includes retail and basis-trade funds — it does not mean institutions are bullish; there is no rebound pattern after big outflows, so it is never a bottom signal. Daily flows correlate 0.60 with the past 3 days of price and ~0.05 with the next 1–10; four weeks after extreme outflow weeks averaged −3.5% (baseline +1.9%, p=0.20), after extreme inflows +6.6% (p=0.30, not significant).
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Trend confirm (lagging) · outflow | < $0 | 25.1% |
| Trend confirm (lagging) · inflow ◀ now | ≥ $0 | 74.9% |
Normal range
Window: 2024-01-11 – 2026-10-02, 684 daily observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 91-day sum · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
Spot ETF · 13-week net flow
For reference: BTC price (log scale, proportional to % moves) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.