L1 · Crypto-native funds (L1.5, confirm only)
Spot ETF · 4-week net flow
US spot BTC ETF net flows over the last 28 days. Flows chase price with a lag (0.6 vs past 3–5 days, ~0.05 vs the future): trend confirmation only, never a contrarian/bottom signal.
Source：Farside（haturatu 镜像）Level：auxVerified · direction
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
+$2.15B
Inflow (trend confirm strong)28-day sum +$2.15B, latest day +$102.70M
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Outflow (trend confirm weak) | < $0 | 30.0% |
| Inflow (trend confirm strong) ◀ now | ≥ $0 | 70.0% |
Normal range
Current
+$2.15B
Percentile 58
Normal range (p10–p90)
-$2.50B ~ +$6.00B
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
-$306.00M ~ +$3.55B
median +$1.35B
Extremes
-$5.51B ~ +$8.88B
2024-01-11 – 2026-10-01, 683 daily observations
p5 -$3.75Bmedian +$1.35Bp95 +$6.95B
Window: 2024-01-11 – 2026-10-01, 683 daily observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 28-day sum · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
ETF daily net flows
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.