L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives
BTC perp funding rate
Who pays whom. Includes ~11% annualized base interest (same order as Binance 0.01%/8h), so 'normal' is not zero.
Source：Hyperliquid（日均年化）Level：core
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
9.3%
Normalannualized 9.3%
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Shorts crowded | < -5.0% | 6.0% |
| Cool | -5.0% ~ 5.0% | 29.5% |
| Normal ◀ now | 5.0% ~ 20.0% | 64.5% |
| Longs warm | 20.0% ~ 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Longs crowded | ≥ 40.0% | 0.0% |
Normal range
Current
9.3%
Percentile 63
Normal range (p10–p90)
-2.4% ~ 10.9%
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
2.8% ~ 10.6%
median 7.3%
Extremes
-15.1% ~ 18.2%
2026-04-02 – 2026-10-01, 183 daily observations
p5 -5.7%median 7.3%p95 10.9%
Window: 2026-04-02 – 2026-10-01, 183 daily observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history annualized · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.