L1 · Optimism · equity leg
Nasdaq-100 · 13w change
First optimism gauge: ln(NDX / NDX 13 weeks ago). Correlates 0.95 with the common optimism factor. >0 = optimistic.
Source：FRED · NASDAQ100Level：coreVerified
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
+3.92%
Optimistic13-week log change +3.92% (level 30501.56)
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Weak | < 0.00% | 26.7% |
| Optimistic ◀ now | ≥ 0.00% | 73.3% |
Normal range
Current
+3.92%
Percentile 43
Normal range (p10–p90)
-9.19% ~ +15.37%
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
-0.59% ~ +10.37%
median +5.35%
Extremes
-24.90% ~ +35.84%
2018-01-05 – 2026-10-01, 457 weekly observations
p5 -12.72%median +5.35%p95 +18.63%
Window: 2018-01-05 – 2026-10-01, 457 weekly observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 13-week log change · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
Nasdaq-100 index (log)
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.