L1 · Optimism · equity leg
VIX
US equity implied volatility. BTC follows the downside more than the upside, so a VIX spike usually hurts it more than the Nasdaq. >20 = optimism weakening.
Source：FRED · VIXCLSLevel：coreVerified
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
16.39
Calmlevel 16.39
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Calm ◀ now | < 20.00 | 64.7% |
| Risk-off (>20) | ≥ 20.00 | 35.3% |
Normal range
Current
16.39
Percentile 38
Normal range (p10–p90)
13.08 ~ 27.93
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
14.98 ~ 22.27
median 17.76
Extremes
9.15 ~ 82.69
2018-01-02 – 2026-10-01, 2232 daily observations
p5 12.48median 17.76p95 31.69
Window: 2018-01-02 – 2026-10-01, 2232 daily observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history level · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.