L1 · Crypto-native funds (L1.5, confirm only)
Trading bullets · core ex-Tron
(USDT+USDC+FDUSD+USD1+TUSD+USDD) minus all stablecoins on Tron (mostly EM remittances, ~uncorrelated with BTC since the ETFs). Closest proxy for exchange-side dry powder.
Source：DefiLlama（逐币 + Tron 链）Level：auxVerified · direction
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
-2.65%
Contracting · diverges from price13w -2.65%, BTC 13w +30.4% (level $170.19B)
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Contracting ◀ now | < -1.00% | 28.1% |
| Flat | -1.00% ~ +1.00% | 4.2% |
| Expanding | ≥ +1.00% | 67.6% |
Normal range
Current
-2.65%
Percentile 21
Normal range (p10–p90)
-5.95% ~ +74.72%
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
-1.66% ~ +33.50%
median +12.41%
Extremes
-15.02% ~ +220.25%
2019-07-19 – 2026-10-01, 377 weekly observations
p5 -7.60%median +12.41%p95 +88.04%
Window: 2019-07-19 – 2026-10-01, 377 weekly observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 13-week change · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
Trading-bullet supply
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.