L1 · Liquidity gate (discount only)
Broad dollar · 13w change
Trade-weighted dollar vs 26 currencies. Confirmation only; combined with net liquidity for the gate.
Source：FRED · DTWEXBGSLevel：auxVerified
Current reading · as of 2026-09-25
-0.46%
Weaker13-week change -0.46% (level 120.33)
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Weaker ◀ now | < 0.00% | 43.4% |
| Stronger | ≥ 0.00% | 56.6% |
Normal range
Current
-0.46%
Percentile 38
Normal range (p10–p90)
-3.17% ~ +3.82%
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
-1.35% ~ +1.80%
median +0.22%
Extremes
-7.14% ~ +8.20%
2018-01-05 – 2026-09-25, 456 weekly observations
p5 -4.20%median +0.22%p95 +4.95%
Window: 2018-01-05 – 2026-09-25, 456 weekly observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 13-week change · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
Broad dollar index
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.