L1 · Liquidity gate (discount only)
Fed net liquidity · 13w change
Fed assets − Treasury General Account − overnight RRP. ≤ −2.72% with a stronger dollar over 13w trips the gate (risk budget ×0.7 in the framework); expansion never adds. Weakening since 2024-05; review end-2026.
Source：FRED · WALCL − WTREGEN − RRPONTSYDLevel：coreVerified · direction
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
-0.82%
Mild contraction13-week change -0.82% (level $5.79T)
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Sharp contraction | < -2.72% | 25.6% |
| Mild contraction ◀ now | -2.72% ~ 0.00% | 27.6% |
| Expanding (no add) | ≥ 0.00% | 46.8% |
Normal range
Current
-0.82%
Percentile 44
Normal range (p10–p90)
-4.45% ~ +5.96%
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
-2.76% ~ +2.64%
median -0.37%
Extremes
-10.55% ~ +56.30%
2018-01-05 – 2026-10-01, 457 weekly observations
p5 -6.46%median -0.37%p95 +11.96%
Window: 2018-01-05 – 2026-10-01, 457 weekly observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 13-week change · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
Fed net liquidity level
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.