L1 · Optimism · credit leg
BAA credit spread · 13w change
Moody's BAA corporate yield minus 10y Treasury. Main credit gauge, 0.89 correlation with the optimism factor since 2011. Rising over 13w = widening (pessimistic).
Source：FRED · BAA10YLevel：coreVerified
Current reading · as of 2026-09-30
-0.07pp
Narrowing13-week change -0.07pp (level 1.47%)
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Narrowing ◀ now | < +0.00pp | 58.4% |
| Widening | ≥ +0.00pp | 41.6% |
Normal range
Current
-0.07pp
Percentile 44
Normal range (p10–p90)
-0.29pp ~ +0.31pp
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
-0.19pp ~ +0.10pp
median -0.05pp
Extremes
-1.36pp ~ +2.27pp
2018-01-05 – 2026-09-30, 457 weekly observations
p5 -0.39ppmedian -0.05ppp95 +0.46pp
Window: 2018-01-05 – 2026-09-30, 457 weekly observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 13-week change · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
BAA spread level
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.