L1 · Optimism · equity leg
Optimism composite z
Mean of expanding-window z-scores (from 2011, no look-ahead) of Nasdaq 13w change, −VIX and the 13w change in 10y breakeven inflation. >0 = more optimistic than average.
Source：FRED（自算）Level：coreVerified · direction
Current reading · as of 2026-10-01
+0.26
Strongmean of 3 z-scores +0.26
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Weak | < +0.00 | 44.0% |
| Strong ◀ now | ≥ +0.00 | 56.0% |
Normal range
Current
+0.26
Percentile 58
Normal range (p10–p90)
-1.14 ~ +0.78
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
-0.37 ~ +0.46
median +0.11
Extremes
-5.59 ~ +1.62
2018-01-05 – 2026-10-01, 457 weekly observations
p5 -1.73median +0.11p95 +1.01
Window: 2018-01-05 – 2026-10-01, 457 weekly observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history mean of 3 z-scores · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.