L1 · Optimism · credit leg
NFCI · 13w change
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index; below 0 = looser than average. Rising over 13w = tightening. Published Wednesdays for the prior Friday.
Source：FRED · NFCI（周度）Level：coreVerified · direction
Current reading · as of 2026-09-25
-0.03
Easing13-week change -0.03 (level -0.548)
Zones: rules and how often each occurred
| Zone | Rule | Share of history in this zone |
|---|---|---|
| Easing ◀ now | < +0.00 | 53.7% |
| Tightening | ≥ +0.00 | 46.3% |
Normal range
Current
-0.03
Percentile 43
Normal range (p10–p90)
-0.11 ~ +0.12
80% of history
Typical (p25–p75)
-0.06 ~ +0.06
median -0.01
Extremes
-0.72 ~ +0.89
2018-01-05 – 2026-09-25, 456 weekly observations
p5 -0.15median -0.01p95 +0.19
Window: 2018-01-05 – 2026-09-25, 456 weekly observations. L1 macro gauges use post-2018 data only (macro had no explanatory power over BTC in 2010–2017); on-chain cycle gauges use full history. Percentiles describe position in history — not trade signals.
Judged series · full history 13-week change · dashed = zone boundaries; blue band = normal range (light p10–p90, dark p25–p75)
NFCI level (below 0 = looser than average)
For reference: BTC price (log) same time axis, linked hover
Rules and evidence grades: Methodology; rule changes are logged in Corrections.