Daily Log · daily
2026-11-04 log
Log generated Nov 4, 1:58 PM ET
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Overall read
Cycle bottom confirmed, leaning up; macro neutral—risk budget as normal. Large-move warning on.
L1 · Macro neutral · alertL2 · Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)L3 · Below the pressure zone · large-move warningL4 · Short-term temperature normal
Layer by layer
- L2Direction The bottom is confirmed; this is day 69 of the phase. In historical replays, the following year had a median return of +152%, positive 92% of the time, though 20–60% drawdowns along the way were common. Invalidation: a daily close below this cycle's lowest close, 58,525. day 69
- L1Pace Macro is neither pushing nor holding back. Risk budget as normal. Also, high-yield spreads are widening fast. They move ahead of other credit gauges but lack a long track record, so treat this as an early warning. real yield 2.62%, 13w +0.22pp
- L3Supply Price sits between the STH cost (75,853) and the pressure zone above (88,863, +13.6% from price). The large-move warning is on (30-day volatility 28.5%, supply concentration 12.9%): a one-way move of about 15% within 30 days is more likely than usual, direction unknown. +1σ 88,863 (+13.6%)
- L4Short term Short-term temperature is normal. funding 30d avg +5.6%
Log generated Nov 4, 1:58 PM ET · Data updated Nov 14, 9:31 AM ET
Uncle's note
Nothing yet · No hand-written note today
The above is rule-based.
Alerts
Alerts of the day2026-11-04
- HighVIX moved from 'Calm' to 'Risk-off (>20)' (19.42 → 21.15)
- MedExchanges saw a one-day net inflow of 5,999 BTC
- HighVIX crossed above 20 (19.42 → 21.15)
- MedL2 signal off: Price above 4 short-term cost lines for 7 days
- MedLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
Four-layer readings frozen that day; latest values on the Macro dashboard
L1 · Macro Liquidity Neutral · alert
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change core | −7.61% | Weak | 13-week log change −7.61% (level 28180.26) | 10-01 ⚠ |
| VIX core | 21.15 | Risk-off | level 21.15 | 11-02 |
| Optimism composite z core | −0.16 | Weak | mean of 3 z-scores −0.16 | 10-02 ⚠ |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change core | −0.14pp | Narrowing | 13-week change −0.14pp (level 1.49%) | 10-29 |
| NFCI · 13w change core | +0.05 | Tightening | 13-week change +0.05 (level −0.487) | 10-23 |
| High-yield spread · 13w change aux | +0.73pp | Widening fast | 13-week change +0.73pp (level 3.43%) | 11-02 |
| 10y real yield · 4 states core | 2.62% | High plateau | level 2.62%, 13w +0.22pp | 11-02 |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change core | −1.44% | Mild contraction | 13-week change −1.44% (level $5.74T) | 10-30 |
| Broad dollar · 13w change aux | +1.64% | Stronger | 13-week change +1.64% (level 121.67) | 10-30 |
| Stablecoin main line (de-duplicated) · 13w aux | −1.64% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -1.64%, BTC 13w +18.0% (level $269.42B), 52w -2.8% | 11-03 |
| Trading bullets · ex-Tron aux | −5.46% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -5.46%, BTC 13w +18.0% (level $161.64B), 52w -12.4% | 11-03 |
| Trading bullets · incl. Tron (parallel) aux | −2.16% | Contracting | 13-week change −2.16% (level $256.01B), 52w -2.6% | 11-03 |
| Yield / synthetic stablecoins · 13w aux | +4.93% | Leverage building | 13-week change +4.93% (level $17.44B), 52w -18.5% | 11-03 |
| Spot ETF · 13-week net flow aux | +$4.78B | Trend confirm · inflow | 91-day sum +$4.78B, latest day −$115.60M | 11-03 |
| Spot ETF · 4-week net flow aux | −$1.35B | Trend confirm · outflow | 28-day sum −$1.35B, latest day −$115.60M | 11-03 |
| H1 · CME front-month annualized basis aux | 6.1% | Recording | 34 / 90 days recorded · zone judgment after 90 days | 11-04 |
| H2 · Deribit 3-month annualized basis aux | 5.4% | Recording | 37 / 90 days recorded · zone judgment after 90 days | 11-04 |
| Stablecoins on Tron · 13w aux | +4.04% | Expanding | 13-week change +4.04% (level $94.37B), 52w +20.5% | 11-03 |
| Payment / institutional stablecoins · 13w aux | +7.73% | Expanding | 13-week change +7.73% (level $10.95B), 52w +121.9% | 11-03 |
| Tokenized stocks / stablecoin cap aux | 1.07% | Below threshold | cap ratio 1.07% | 11-04 |
| 2Y/10Y curve watch | 0.38% | Normal | level 0.38% | 10-30 |
Show the raw verdict string
L1: [not surging·narrowing | Neutral · alert] | optimism z −0.16 | credit: BAA 13wΔ −0.14pp / HY 3.43% (13w +0.73pp) | real yield 2.62% | net liquidity 13w −1.44% / USD 13w +1.64% | L1-B: main line (de-dup) 13w −1.64% / trading bullets 13w −5.46% / ETF 13w +$4.78B / rotation Existing money switching channels (divergence, no adds)
L2 · Cycle Position Cycle state: Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)
L2 cycle state: Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) (since 2026-08-27, day 69)
Price 77,656, -37.8% from the all-time high, +32.7% from the cycle-low close (low 126 days ago), 927 days since the last halving.
Bottom-zone signals 2/6: 1y realized profit < realized loss, LTH supply share ex-7y > 75%. Bottom confirmation: 6-12M cost < 12-18M cost (counts once seen this cycle), 6-12M cost < 1-2Y cost (counts once seen this cycle).
Levels above: ATH 124,824 (+60.7%)
Levels below: 200D MA 73,152 (-5.8%); 200W MA 67,472 (-13.1%); Cycle low 58,525 (-24.6%)
Signal changes today: off: Price above 4 short-term cost lines for 7 days.
Next: Bottom confirmed. Historically +152% median 1y forward; 20–60% drawdowns along the way are common.
⚠ L2 used cached data that day.
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV (price ÷ realized price) core | 1.438 | Undervalued | level 1.438 | 11-03 |
| Price / 200-week MA core | 1.151 | Undervalued | ratio 1.151 | 11-03 |
| Supply in profit core | 62.2% | Not a bottom zone | share 62.2% | 11-02 |
| 1-year realized profit / loss ratio core | 0.824 | Bottom-zone signal · on | ratio 0.824 | 11-02 |
| Long-term holder share (ex >7y) core | 74.9% | Not a bottom zone | share 74.9% | 11-02 |
| Green / black ratio (6m–10y cost ÷ 0–10y cost) core | 0.950 | Not reached | ratio 0.950 | 11-02 |
L3 · Supply Structure Between the STH cost and the +1σ pressure zone; large-move warning on
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above) core | +13.64% | Pressure zone above | zone vs price +13.64% (level $88,863) | 10-29 ⚠ |
| STH cost (reference support) core | −2.99% | Price above | line vs price −2.99% (level $75,853) | 10-29 ⚠ |
| Supply concentration (price ±5%) core | 19.7% | Concentrated | supply share within ±5% 19.7% | 10-29 |
| BTC 30-day annualized volatility core | 28.5% | Low volatility | annualized 28.5% | 10-29 ⚠ |
| STH-MVRV (price ÷ STH cost) aux | 1.031 | Short-term holders in profit | ratio 1.031 | 10-29 ⚠ |
| STH supply in profit aux | 41.6% | Descriptive only | share 41.6% | 10-29 ⚠ |
| STH-SOPR (7-day mean) aux | 1.000 | Descriptive only | 7-day mean 1.000 | 10-29 ⚠ |
| Addresses holding ≥ 1,000 BTC (4-week change) aux | −0.41% | Coincident description | 4-week change −0.41% (level 7,167,140 BTC) | 10-29 ⚠ |
| Addresses holding < 1 BTC (4-week change) aux | −0.34% | Coincident description | 4-week change −0.34% (level 1,391,500 BTC) | 10-29 ⚠ |
| Exchange BTC net flow (7-day sum) aux | −31,599 BTC | Heavy net outflow | 7-day sum −31,599 BTC, latest day +5,999 BTC | 11-03 |
| Exchange BTC balance (30d change) aux | −0.32% | Flat | 30-day change −0.32% (level 2,667,086 BTC) | 11-03 |
| Spot ETF holdings (30d change) aux | −14,539 BTC | Coincident description | 30-day change −14,539 BTC (level 1,274,991 BTC) | 11-03 |
| Exchanges + ETFs combined (30d change) aux | −23,142 BTC | Coincident description | 30-day change −23,142 BTC (level 3,942,077 BTC) | 11-03 |
L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives Short-term temperature normal
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altseason index (own) watch | 20.0% | Bitcoin season | share 20.0% | 11-04 |
| BTC dominance watch | 59.5% | Trend only | level 59.5% | 11-04 |
Core indicators missing that day: Nasdaq-100 · 13w change, Optimism composite z, STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above), STH cost (reference support), BTC 30-day annualized volatility
Launchpads 2026-11-03 · Top60 $3.15M ▼ 0.5%
| Platform | Chain | Fees | DoD | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | Solana | $1.61M | ▲ 0.1% | 51.1% |
| Flap sh | BSC+ | $528.5K | ▼ 17.4% | 16.8% |
| Pons V2 | Robinhood | $194.1K | ▼ 12.9% | 6.2% |
| StonkFun | Solana | $183.6K | ▲ 102.4% | 5.8% |
| Pons V1 | Robinhood | $8.2K | ▲ 16.7% | 0.3% |
Data sources
DefiLlama stablecoins ✓FRED ✓Deribit ✓CoinMetrics cycle ✓CoinMetrics exchange flows ✓alternative.me ✓Hyperliquid ✓CoinGecko ✓CoinGecko categories ✓ETF flows ✓CME basis ✓ETF 持币 ✓
Welcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
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What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.