Daily Log · daily
2026-11-05 log
Log generated Nov 5, 1:09 PM ET
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Overall read
Cycle bottom confirmed, leaning up; macro neutral—risk budget as normal. Large-move warning on.
L1 · Macro neutral · alertL2 · Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)L3 · Below the pressure zone · large-move warningL4 · Short-term temperature normal
Layer by layer
- L2Direction The bottom is confirmed; this is day 70 of the phase. In historical replays, the following year had a median return of +152%, positive 92% of the time, though 20–60% drawdowns along the way were common. Invalidation: a daily close below this cycle's lowest close, 58,525. day 70
- L1Pace Macro is neither pushing nor holding back. Risk budget as normal. Also, high-yield spreads are widening fast. They move ahead of other credit gauges but lack a long track record, so treat this as an early warning. real yield 2.65%, 13w +0.25pp
- L3Supply Price sits between the STH cost (75,853) and the pressure zone above (88,863, +13.6% from price). The large-move warning is on (30-day volatility 28.5%, supply concentration 12.9%): a one-way move of about 15% within 30 days is more likely than usual, direction unknown. +1σ 88,863 (+13.6%)
- L4Short term Short-term temperature is normal. funding 30d avg +6.0%
Log generated Nov 5, 1:09 PM ET · Data updated Nov 14, 9:31 AM ET
Uncle's note
Nothing yet · No hand-written note today
The above is rule-based.
Alerts
Alerts of the day2026-11-05
- MedVIX moved from 'Risk-off (>20)' to 'Calm' (21.15 → 16.61)
- MedVIX fell back below 20 (21.15 → 16.61)
Four-layer readings frozen that day; latest values on the Macro dashboard
L1 · Macro Liquidity Neutral · alert
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change core | −4.42% | Weak | 13-week log change −4.42% (level 28437.17) | 11-04 |
| VIX core | 16.61 | Calm | level 16.61 | 11-04 |
| Optimism composite z core | −0.28 | Weak | mean of 3 z-scores −0.28 | 11-04 |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change core | −0.10pp | Narrowing | 13-week change −0.10pp (level 1.54%) | 11-03 |
| NFCI · 13w change core | +0.08 | Tightening | 13-week change +0.08 (level −0.459) | 10-30 |
| High-yield spread · 13w change aux | +0.62pp | Widening fast | 13-week change +0.62pp (level 3.32%) | 11-04 |
| 10y real yield · 4 states core | 2.65% | High plateau | level 2.65%, 13w +0.25pp | 11-03 |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change core | −1.44% | Mild contraction | 13-week change −1.44% (level $5.74T) | 10-30 |
| Broad dollar · 13w change aux | +1.64% | Stronger | 13-week change +1.64% (level 121.67) | 10-30 |
| Stablecoin main line (de-duplicated) · 13w aux | −1.95% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -1.95%, BTC 13w +21.6% (level $268.54B), 52w -3.1% | 11-04 |
| Trading bullets · ex-Tron aux | −6.15% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -6.15%, BTC 13w +21.6% (level $160.46B), 52w -13.1% | 11-04 |
| Trading bullets · incl. Tron (parallel) aux | −2.49% | Contracting | 13-week change −2.49% (level $255.16B), 52w -2.9% | 11-04 |
| Yield / synthetic stablecoins · 13w aux | +5.29% | Leverage building | 13-week change +5.29% (level $17.50B), 52w -18.3% | 11-04 |
| Spot ETF · 13-week net flow aux | +$4.61B | Trend confirm · inflow | 91-day sum +$4.61B, latest day +$74.60M | 11-04 |
| Spot ETF · 4-week net flow aux | −$792.20M | Trend confirm · outflow | 28-day sum −$792.20M, latest day +$74.60M | 11-04 |
| H1 · CME front-month annualized basis aux | 3.3% | Recording | 35 / 90 days recorded · zone judgment after 90 days | 11-05 |
| H2 · Deribit 3-month annualized basis aux | 5.8% | Recording | 38 / 90 days recorded · zone judgment after 90 days | 11-05 |
| Stablecoins on Tron · 13w aux | +4.41% | Expanding | 13-week change +4.41% (level $94.70B), 52w +20.9% | 11-04 |
| Payment / institutional stablecoins · 13w aux | +7.11% | Expanding | 13-week change +7.11% (level $10.88B), 52w +120.7% | 11-04 |
| BTC–Nasdaq 52w rolling correlation aux | 0.39 | Normal linkage | 52-week correlation 0.39 | 10-30 |
| Tokenized stocks / stablecoin cap aux | 0.96% | Below threshold | cap ratio 0.96% | 11-05 |
| 2Y/10Y curve watch | 0.32% | Normal | level 0.32% | 11-04 |
Show the raw verdict string
L1: [plateau·weak | Neutral · alert] | optimism z −0.28 | credit: BAA 13wΔ −0.10pp / HY 3.32% (13w +0.62pp) | real yield 2.65% | net liquidity 13w −1.44% / USD 13w +1.64% | L1-B: main line (de-dup) 13w −1.95% / trading bullets 13w −6.15% / ETF 13w +$4.61B / rotation Existing money switching channels (divergence, no adds)
L2 · Cycle Position Cycle state: Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)
L2 cycle state: Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) (since 2026-08-27, day 70)
Price 80,488, -35.5% from the all-time high, +37.5% from the cycle-low close (low 127 days ago), 928 days since the last halving.
Bottom-zone signals 2/6: 1y realized profit < realized loss, LTH supply share ex-7y > 75%. Bottom confirmation: 6-12M cost < 12-18M cost (counts once seen this cycle), 6-12M cost < 1-2Y cost (counts once seen this cycle).
Levels above: ATH 124,824 (+55.1%)
Levels below: 200D MA 73,175 (-9.1%); 200W MA 67,517 (-16.1%); Cycle low 58,525 (-27.3%)
Next: Bottom confirmed. Historically +152% median 1y forward; 20–60% drawdowns along the way are common.
⚠ L2 used cached data that day.
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV (price ÷ realized price) core | 1.490 | Undervalued | level 1.490 | 11-04 |
| Price / 200-week MA core | 1.192 | Undervalued | ratio 1.192 | 11-04 |
| Supply in profit core | 62.2% | Not a bottom zone | share 62.2% | 11-02 |
| 1-year realized profit / loss ratio core | 0.824 | Bottom-zone signal · on | ratio 0.824 | 11-02 |
| Long-term holder share (ex >7y) core | 74.9% | Not a bottom zone | share 74.9% | 11-02 |
| Green / black ratio (6m–10y cost ÷ 0–10y cost) core | 0.950 | Not reached | ratio 0.950 | 11-02 |
L3 · Supply Structure Between the STH cost and the +1σ pressure zone; large-move warning on
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above) core | +13.64% | Pressure zone above | zone vs price +13.64% (level $88,863) | 10-29 ⚠ |
| STH cost (reference support) core | −2.99% | Price above | line vs price −2.99% (level $75,853) | 10-29 ⚠ |
| Supply concentration (price ±5%) core | 19.7% | Concentrated | supply share within ±5% 19.7% | 10-29 |
| BTC 30-day annualized volatility core | 28.5% | Low volatility | annualized 28.5% | 10-29 ⚠ |
| STH-MVRV (price ÷ STH cost) aux | 1.031 | Short-term holders in profit | ratio 1.031 | 10-29 ⚠ |
| STH supply in profit aux | 41.6% | Descriptive only | share 41.6% | 10-29 ⚠ |
| STH-SOPR (7-day mean) aux | 1.000 | Descriptive only | 7-day mean 1.000 | 10-29 ⚠ |
| Addresses holding ≥ 1,000 BTC (4-week change) aux | −0.41% | Coincident description | 4-week change −0.41% (level 7,167,140 BTC) | 10-29 ⚠ |
| Addresses holding < 1 BTC (4-week change) aux | −0.34% | Coincident description | 4-week change −0.34% (level 1,391,500 BTC) | 10-29 ⚠ |
| Exchange BTC net flow (7-day sum) aux | −37,838 BTC | Heavy net outflow | 7-day sum −37,838 BTC, latest day −2,402 BTC | 11-04 |
| Exchange BTC balance (30d change) aux | +1.27% | Rising | 30-day change +1.27% (level 2,708,410 BTC) | 11-04 |
| Spot ETF holdings (30d change) aux | −14,046 BTC | Coincident description | 30-day change −14,046 BTC (level 1,277,359 BTC) | 11-04 |
| Exchanges + ETFs combined (30d change) aux | +20,049 BTC | Coincident description | 30-day change +20,049 BTC (level 3,985,769 BTC) | 11-04 |
L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives Short-term temperature normal
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altseason index (own) watch | 24.0% | Bitcoin season | share 24.0% | 11-05 |
| BTC dominance watch | 59.2% | Trend only | level 59.2% | 11-05 |
Core indicators missing that day: STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above), STH cost (reference support), BTC 30-day annualized volatility
Launchpads 2026-11-04 · Top60 $3.19M ▲ 1.3%
| Platform | Chain | Fees | DoD | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | Solana | $1.73M | ▲ 7.5% | 54.3% |
| Flap sh | BSC+ | $503.3K | ▼ 4.8% | 15.8% |
| Pons V2 | Robinhood | $286.6K | ▲ 47.7% | 9.0% |
| StonkFun | Solana | $86.4K | ▼ 52.9% | 2.7% |
| Pons V1 | Robinhood | $8.2K | ▼ 0.8% | 0.3% |
Data sources
DefiLlama stablecoins ✓FRED ✓Deribit ✓CoinMetrics cycle ✓CoinMetrics exchange flows ✓alternative.me ✓Hyperliquid ✓CoinGecko ✓CoinGecko categories ✓ETF flows ✓CME basis ✓ETF 持币 ✓
Welcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
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Reopen anytime from “Guide” in the sidebar
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.