Daily Log · daily
2026-11-12 log
Log generated Nov 12, 3:24 AM ET
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Overall read
Cycle bottom confirmed, leaning up; macro neutral—risk budget as normal.
L1 · Macro neutral · alertL2 · Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)L3 · Below STH costL4 · Short-term temperature normal
Layer by layer
- L2Direction The bottom is confirmed; this is day 76 of the phase. In historical replays, the following year had a median return of +152%, positive 92% of the time, though 20–60% drawdowns along the way were common. Invalidation: a daily close below this cycle's lowest close, 58,525. day 76
- L1Pace Macro is neither pushing nor holding back. Risk budget as normal. Also, high-yield spreads are widening fast. They move ahead of other credit gauges but lack a long track record, so treat this as an early warning. real yield 2.66%, 13w +0.25pp
- L3Supply Price has fallen below the STH cost (75,717); buyers of roughly the last five months are under water. Since 2018 this line has been close to random as support — reference only. +1σ 88,712 (+20.4%)
- L4Short term Short-term temperature is normal. funding 30d avg +7.1%
Log generated Nov 12, 3:24 AM ET · Data updated Nov 14, 6:44 AM ET
Uncle's note
Nothing yet · No hand-written note today
The above is rule-based.
Alerts
Alerts of the day2026-11-12
- MedExchanges saw a one-day net inflow of 6,054 BTC
- MedLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
Four-layer readings frozen that day; latest values on the Macro dashboard
L1 · Macro Liquidity Neutral · alert
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change core | −5.73% | Weak | 13-week log change −5.73% (level 28374.25) | 11-11 |
| VIX core | 19.46 | Calm | level 19.46 | 11-10 |
| Optimism composite z core | −0.60 | Weak | mean of 3 z-scores −0.60 | 11-11 |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change core | −0.18pp | Narrowing | 13-week change −0.18pp (level 1.51%) | 11-09 |
| NFCI · 13w change core | +0.08 | Tightening | 13-week change +0.08 (level −0.459) | 10-30 |
| High-yield spread · 13w change aux | +0.67pp | Widening fast | 13-week change +0.67pp (level 3.34%) | 11-09 |
| 10y real yield · 4 states core | 2.66% | High plateau | level 2.66%, 13w +0.25pp | 11-09 |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change core | −0.84% | Mild contraction | 13-week change −0.84% (level $5.79T) | 11-06 |
| Broad dollar · 13w change aux | +2.36% | Stronger | 13-week change +2.36% (level 121.88) | 11-06 |
| Stablecoin main line (de-duplicated) · 13w aux | −2.81% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -2.81%, BTC 13w +15.9% (level $263.66B), 52w -4.0% | 11-11 |
| Trading bullets · ex-Tron aux | −7.50% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -7.50%, BTC 13w +15.9% (level $157.25B), 52w -15.3% | 11-11 |
| Trading bullets · incl. Tron (parallel) aux | −3.83% | Contracting | 13-week change −3.83% (level $251.41B), 52w -4.6% | 11-11 |
| Yield / synthetic stablecoins · 13w aux | +0.13% | Flat | 13-week change +0.13% (level $16.59B), 52w -20.1% | 11-11 |
| Spot ETF · 13-week net flow aux | +$3.13B | Trend confirm · inflow | 91-day sum +$3.13B, latest day −$299.80M | 11-11 |
| Spot ETF · 4-week net flow aux | −$1.86B | Trend confirm · outflow | 28-day sum −$1.86B, latest day −$299.80M | 11-11 |
| H1 · CME front-month annualized basis aux | 5.9% | Recording | 42 / 90 days recorded · zone judgment after 90 days | 11-12 |
| H2 · Deribit 3-month annualized basis aux | 5.6% | Recording | 45 / 90 days recorded · zone judgment after 90 days | 11-12 |
| Stablecoins on Tron · 13w aux | +2.99% | Expanding | 13-week change +2.99% (level $94.16B), 52w +20.9% | 11-11 |
| Payment / institutional stablecoins · 13w aux | +7.27% | Expanding | 13-week change +7.27% (level $10.98B), 52w +96.4% | 11-11 |
| BTC–Nasdaq 52w rolling correlation aux | 0.37 | Normal linkage | 52-week correlation 0.37 | 11-06 |
| Tokenized stocks / stablecoin cap aux | 1.05% | Below threshold | cap ratio 1.05% | 11-12 |
| 2Y/10Y curve watch | 0.25% | Normal | level 0.25% | 11-10 |
Show the raw verdict string
L1: [plateau·weak | Neutral · alert] | optimism z −0.60 | credit: BAA 13wΔ −0.18pp / HY 3.34% (13w +0.67pp) | real yield 2.66% | net liquidity 13w −0.84% / USD 13w +2.36% | L1-B: main line (de-dup) 13w −2.81% / trading bullets 13w −7.50% / ETF 13w +$3.13B / rotation Existing money switching channels (divergence, no adds)
L2 · Cycle Position Cycle state: Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)
L2 cycle state: Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) (since 2026-08-27, day 76)
Price 73,661, -41.0% from the all-time high, +25.9% from the cycle-low close (low 133 days ago), 934 days since the last halving.
Bottom-zone signals 2/6: 1y realized profit < realized loss, LTH supply share ex-7y > 75%. Bottom confirmation: 6-12M cost < 12-18M cost (counts once seen this cycle), 6-12M cost < 1-2Y cost (counts once seen this cycle).
Levels above: STH cost 75,717 (+2.8%); True Market Mean 77,464 (+5.2%); 6-12M cost 82,733 (+12.3%)
Levels below: 200D MA 73,132 (-0.7%); 200W MA 67,766 (-8.0%); 3-6M cost 65,392 (-11.2%)
Next: Bottom confirmed. Historically +152% median 1y forward; 20–60% drawdowns along the way are common.
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV (price ÷ realized price) core | 1.367 | Undervalued | level 1.367 | 11-10 |
| Price / 200-week MA core | 1.087 | Undervalued | ratio 1.087 | 11-10 |
| Supply in profit core | 57.9% | Not a bottom zone | share 57.9% | 11-10 |
| 1-year realized profit / loss ratio core | 0.781 | Bottom-zone signal · on | ratio 0.781 | 11-10 |
| Long-term holder share (ex >7y) core | 74.2% | Not a bottom zone | share 74.2% | 11-10 |
| Green / black ratio (6m–10y cost ÷ 0–10y cost) core | 0.950 | Not reached | ratio 0.950 | 11-10 |
L3 · Supply Structure Below the STH cost (short-term holders under water)
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above) core | +20.43% | Pressure zone above | zone vs price +20.43% (level $88,712) | 11-10 |
| STH cost (reference support) core | +2.79% | Price below | line vs price +2.79% (level $75,717) | 11-10 |
| Supply concentration (price ±5%) core | 8.4% | Not concentrated | supply share within ±5% 8.4% | 11-10 |
| BTC 30-day annualized volatility core | 36.0% | Low volatility | annualized 36.0% | 11-10 |
| STH-MVRV (price ÷ STH cost) aux | 0.973 | Short-term holders under water | ratio 0.973 | 11-10 |
| STH supply in profit aux | 27.2% | Descriptive only | share 27.2% | 11-10 |
| STH-SOPR (7-day mean) aux | 0.998 | Descriptive only | 7-day mean 0.998 | 11-10 |
| Addresses holding ≥ 1,000 BTC (4-week change) aux | +0.17% | Coincident description | 4-week change +0.17% (level 7,185,860 BTC) | 11-10 |
| Addresses holding < 1 BTC (4-week change) aux | +0.04% | Coincident description | 4-week change +0.04% (level 1,396,110 BTC) | 11-10 |
| Exchange BTC net flow (7-day sum) aux | −4,497 BTC | Net outflow | 7-day sum −4,497 BTC, latest day +6,054 BTC | 11-11 |
| Exchange BTC balance (30d change) aux | +1.69% | Rising | 30-day change +1.69% (level 2,719,874 BTC) | 11-11 |
| Spot ETF holdings (30d change) aux | −24,273 BTC | Coincident description | 30-day change −24,273 BTC (level 1,259,546 BTC) | 11-10 |
| Exchanges + ETFs combined (30d change) aux | +27,010 BTC | Coincident description | 30-day change +27,010 BTC (level 3,979,420 BTC) | 11-11 |
L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives Short-term temperature normal
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altseason index (own) watch | 24.0% | Bitcoin season | share 24.0% | 11-12 |
| BTC dominance watch | 59.9% | Trend only | level 59.9% | 11-12 |
Launchpads 2026-11-11 · Top60 $2.57M ▼ 13.4%
| Platform | Chain | Fees | DoD | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | Solana | $1.29M | ▲ 6.8% | 50.3% |
| Flap sh | BSC+ | $515.7K | ▲ 15.8% | 20.0% |
| Pons V2 | Robinhood | $152.1K | ▼ 4.3% | 5.9% |
| Pons V1 | Robinhood | $12.4K | ▲ 54.5% | 0.5% |
Data sources
DefiLlama stablecoins ✓FRED ✓Deribit ✓CoinMetrics cycle ✓CoinMetrics exchange flows ✓alternative.me ✓Hyperliquid ✓CoinGecko ✓CoinGecko categories ✓ETF flows ✓CME basis ✓ETF 持币 ✓
Welcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
Data refreshes daily at 7:37 PM ET (Event calendar), 7:53 PM ET (Leg tracker), 11:13 PM ET (Core picks monitor), 11:43 PM ET (Alpha radar), 12:13 AM ET (RWA), 9:17 PM ET (L2 cycle state machine), 9:47 PM ET (L3 supply layer), 10:17 PM ET (L4 sentiment & derivatives) and 10:40 PM ET (Daily run); each daily log is frozen once written. Every metric carries an evidence grade; anything we can't source for real is marked "Pending" rather than filled with a proxy.
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Data and process records only. Not investment advice.
Reopen anytime from “Guide” in the sidebar
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.