Daily Log · daily
2026-11-14 log
Log generated Nov 13, 9:29 PM ET
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Overall read
Cycle bottom confirmed, leaning up; but macro headwind—no chasing, risk budget at 70%.
L1 · Macro headwind · alertL2 · Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)L3 · Below STH costL4 · Short-term temperature normal
Layer by layer
- L2Direction The bottom is confirmed; this is day 78 of the phase. In historical replays, the following year had a median return of +152%, positive 92% of the time, though 20–60% drawdowns along the way were common. Invalidation: a daily close below this cycle's lowest close, 58,525. day 78
- L1Pace Surging real yields now meet tightening financial conditions, so macro is a drag. Size the risk budget at 70%. Also, high-yield spreads are widening fast. They move ahead of other credit gauges but lack a long track record, so treat this as an early warning. real yield 2.86%, 13w +0.45pp
- L3Supply Price has fallen below the STH cost (75,429); buyers of roughly the last five months are under water. Since 2018 this line has been close to random as support — reference only. +1σ 88,374 (+24.0%)
- L4Short term Short-term temperature is normal. funding 30d avg +7.5%
Log generated Nov 13, 9:29 PM ET · Data updated Nov 14, 6:44 AM ET
Uncle's note
Nothing yet · No hand-written note today
The above is rule-based.
Alerts
Alerts of the day2026-11-14
- High10y real yield · 4 states moved from 'High plateau' to 'Surging' (2.78% → 2.86%)
- HighL1 regime change: Macro neutral · alert → Macro headwind · alert
- MedLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
Four-layer readings frozen that day; latest values on the Macro dashboard
L1 · Macro Liquidity Headwind · alert
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change core | −6.03% | Weak | 13-week log change −6.03% (level 28289.19) | 11-12 |
| VIX core | 18.70 | Calm | level 18.70 | 11-12 |
| Optimism composite z core | −0.51 | Weak | mean of 3 z-scores −0.51 | 11-13 |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change core | −0.21pp | Narrowing | 13-week change −0.21pp (level 1.48%) | 11-12 |
| NFCI · 13w change core | +0.08 | Tightening | 13-week change +0.08 (level −0.462) | 11-06 |
| High-yield spread · 13w change aux | +0.53pp | Widening fast | 13-week change +0.53pp (level 3.20%) | 11-12 |
| 10y real yield · 4 states core | 2.86% | Surging | level 2.86%, 13w +0.45pp | 11-12 |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change core | +0.84% | Expanding | 13-week change +0.84% (level $5.84T) | 11-13 |
| Broad dollar · 13w change aux | +2.36% | Stronger | 13-week change +2.36% (level 121.88) | 11-06 |
| Stablecoin main line (de-duplicated) · 13w aux | −3.37% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -3.37%, BTC 13w +7.9% (level $262.12B), 52w -4.5% | 11-13 |
| Trading bullets · ex-Tron aux | −8.01% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -8.01%, BTC 13w +7.9% (level $156.39B), 52w -15.7% | 11-13 |
| Trading bullets · incl. Tron (parallel) aux | −4.21% | Contracting | 13-week change −4.21% (level $250.41B), 52w -5.0% | 11-13 |
| Yield / synthetic stablecoins · 13w aux | +0.19% | Flat | 13-week change +0.19% (level $16.60B), 52w -20.1% | 11-13 |
| Spot ETF · 13-week net flow aux | +$2.99B | Trend confirm · inflow | 91-day sum +$2.99B, latest day −$41.90M | 11-13 |
| Spot ETF · 4-week net flow aux | −$2.10B | Trend confirm · outflow | 28-day sum −$2.10B, latest day −$41.90M | 11-13 |
| H1 · CME front-month annualized basis aux | 7.8% | Recording | 44 / 90 days recorded · zone judgment after 90 days | 11-14 |
| H2 · Deribit 3-month annualized basis aux | 5.5% | Recording | 47 / 90 days recorded · zone judgment after 90 days | 11-14 |
| Stablecoins on Tron · 13w aux | +2.84% | Expanding | 13-week change +2.84% (level $94.02B), 52w +20.7% | 11-13 |
| Payment / institutional stablecoins · 13w aux | +5.61% | Expanding | 13-week change +5.61% (level $10.81B), 52w +93.3% | 11-13 |
| BTC–Nasdaq 52w rolling correlation aux | 0.37 | Normal linkage | 52-week correlation 0.37 | 11-06 |
| Tokenized stocks / stablecoin cap aux | 1.02% | Below threshold | cap ratio 1.02% | 11-14 |
| 2Y/10Y curve watch | 0.27% | Normal | level 0.27% | 11-13 |
Show the raw verdict string
L1: [surging·weak | Headwind · alert] | optimism z −0.51 | credit: BAA 13wΔ −0.21pp / HY 3.20% (13w +0.53pp) | real yield 2.86% | net liquidity 13w +0.84% / USD 13w +2.36% | L1-B: main line (de-dup) 13w −3.37% / trading bullets 13w −8.01% / ETF 13w +$2.99B / rotation Existing money switching channels (divergence, no adds)
L2 · Cycle Position Cycle state: Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)
L2 cycle state: Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) (since 2026-08-27, day 78)
Price 71,280, -42.9% from the all-time high, +21.8% from the cycle-low close (low 135 days ago), 936 days since the last halving.
Bottom-zone signals 2/6: 1y realized profit < realized loss, LTH supply share ex-7y > 75%. Bottom confirmation: 6-12M cost < 12-18M cost (counts once seen this cycle), 6-12M cost < 1-2Y cost (counts once seen this cycle).
Levels above: 200D MA 73,076 (+2.5%); STH cost 75,429 (+5.8%); True Market Mean 77,365 (+8.5%)
Levels below: 200W MA 67,844 (-4.8%); 3-6M cost 64,895 (-9.0%); Cycle low 58,525 (-17.9%)
Next: Bottom confirmed. Historically +152% median 1y forward; 20–60% drawdowns along the way are common.
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV (price ÷ realized price) core | 1.324 | Undervalued | level 1.324 | 11-12 |
| Price / 200-week MA core | 1.051 | Undervalued | ratio 1.051 | 11-12 |
| Supply in profit core | 56.5% | Not a bottom zone | share 56.5% | 11-12 |
| 1-year realized profit / loss ratio core | 0.773 | Bottom-zone signal · on | ratio 0.773 | 11-12 |
| Long-term holder share (ex >7y) core | 74.1% | Not a bottom zone | share 74.1% | 11-12 |
| Green / black ratio (6m–10y cost ÷ 0–10y cost) core | 0.952 | Not reached | ratio 0.952 | 11-12 |
L3 · Supply Structure Below the STH cost (short-term holders under water)
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above) core | +23.98% | Pressure zone above | zone vs price +23.98% (level $88,374) | 11-12 |
| STH cost (reference support) core | +5.82% | Price below | line vs price +5.82% (level $75,429) | 11-12 |
| Supply concentration (price ±5%) core | 7.1% | Not concentrated | supply share within ±5% 7.1% | 11-12 |
| BTC 30-day annualized volatility core | 36.4% | Low volatility | annualized 36.4% | 11-12 |
| STH-MVRV (price ÷ STH cost) aux | 0.945 | Short-term holders under water | ratio 0.945 | 11-12 |
| STH supply in profit aux | 23.4% | Descriptive only | share 23.4% | 11-12 |
| STH-SOPR (7-day mean) aux | 0.995 | Descriptive only | 7-day mean 0.995 | 11-12 |
| Addresses holding ≥ 1,000 BTC (4-week change) aux | +0.32% | Coincident description | 4-week change +0.32% (level 7,198,640 BTC) | 11-12 |
| Addresses holding < 1 BTC (4-week change) aux | +0.08% | Coincident description | 4-week change +0.08% (level 1,395,470 BTC) | 11-12 |
| Exchange BTC net flow (7-day sum) aux | −6,739 BTC | Net outflow | 7-day sum −6,739 BTC, latest day −910 BTC | 11-12 |
| Exchange BTC balance (30d change) aux | +1.75% | Rising | 30-day change +1.75% (level 2,723,131 BTC) | 11-12 |
| Spot ETF holdings (30d change) aux | −21,811 BTC | Coincident description | 30-day change −21,811 BTC (level 1,256,040 BTC) | 11-11 |
| Exchanges + ETFs combined (30d change) aux | +19,384 BTC | Coincident description | 30-day change +19,384 BTC (level 3,979,171 BTC) | 11-12 |
L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives Short-term temperature normal
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altseason index (own) watch | 28.0% | BTC leaning | share 28.0% | 11-14 |
| BTC dominance watch | 58.9% | Trend only | level 58.9% | 11-14 |
Launchpads 2026-11-13 · Top60 $2.21M ▼ 8.0%
| Platform | Chain | Fees | DoD | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | Solana | $1.38M | ▲ 1.5% | 62.5% |
| Flap sh | BSC+ | $395.4K | ▼ 12.4% | 17.9% |
| Pons V2 | Robinhood | $111.7K | ▲ 3.9% | 5.1% |
| Pons V1 | Robinhood | $10.9K | ▲ 39.2% | 0.5% |
Data sources
DefiLlama stablecoins ✓FRED ✓Deribit ✓CoinMetrics cycle ✓CoinMetrics exchange flows ✓alternative.me ✓Hyperliquid ✓CoinGecko ✓CoinGecko categories ✓ETF flows ✓CME basis ✓ETF 持币 ✓
Welcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
Data refreshes daily at 7:37 PM ET (Event calendar), 7:53 PM ET (Leg tracker), 11:13 PM ET (Core picks monitor), 11:43 PM ET (Alpha radar), 12:13 AM ET (RWA), 9:17 PM ET (L2 cycle state machine), 9:47 PM ET (L3 supply layer), 10:17 PM ET (L4 sentiment & derivatives) and 10:40 PM ET (Daily run); each daily log is frozen once written. Every metric carries an evidence grade; anything we can't source for real is marked "Pending" rather than filled with a proxy.
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Reopen anytime from “Guide” in the sidebar
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.