Daily Log · daily
2026-10-17 log
Log generated Oct 17, 6:48 AM ET
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Overall read
Cycle bottom confirmed, leaning up; but macro headwind—no chasing, risk budget at 70%. Large-move warning on.
L1 · Macro headwind · alertL2 · Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)L3 · Below the pressure zone · large-move warningL4 · Sentiment neutral
Layer by layer
- L2Direction The bottom is confirmed; this is day 52 of the phase. In historical replays, the following year had a median return of +152%, positive 92% of the time, though 20–60% drawdowns along the way were common. Invalidation: a daily close below this cycle's lowest close, 58,525. day 52
- L1Pace Surging real yields now meet tightening financial conditions, so macro is a drag. Size the risk budget at 70%. Also, high-yield spreads are widening fast. They move ahead of other credit gauges but lack a long track record, so treat this as an early warning. real yield 2.78%, 13w +0.47pp
- L3Supply Price sits between the STH cost (74,490) and the pressure zone above (87,204, +7.3% from price). The large-move warning is on (30-day volatility 37.4%, supply concentration 17.0%): a one-way move of about 15% within 30 days is more likely than usual, direction unknown. +1σ 87,204 (+7.3%)
- L4Short term Short-term sentiment and leverage are at normal temperature.
Log generated Oct 17, 6:48 AM ET · Data updated Nov 14, 9:31 AM ET
Uncle's note
Nothing yet · No hand-written note today
The above is rule-based.
Alerts
Alerts of the day2026-10-17
- MedFear & Greed Index moved from 'Greed' to 'Neutral' (63 → 55)
- MedLaunchpad data note (details on the launchpad page, Chinese only)
Four-layer readings frozen that day; latest values on the Macro dashboard
L1 · Macro Liquidity Headwind · alert
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change core | +4.59% | Optimistic | 13-week log change +4.59% (level 29935.59) | 10-15 |
| VIX core | 16.46 | Calm | level 16.46 | 10-15 |
| Optimism composite z core | +0.25 | Strong | mean of 3 z-scores +0.25 | 10-16 |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change core | −0.15pp | Narrowing | 13-week change −0.15pp (level 1.44%) | 10-15 |
| NFCI · 13w change core | +0.02 | Tightening | 13-week change +0.02 (level −0.499) | 10-09 |
| High-yield spread · 13w change aux | +0.50pp | Widening fast | 13-week change +0.50pp (level 3.23%) | 10-15 |
| 10y real yield · 4 states core | 2.78% | Surging | level 2.78%, 13w +0.47pp | 10-15 |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change core | −1.91% | Mild contraction | 13-week change −1.91% (level $5.87T) | 10-16 |
| Broad dollar · 13w change aux | +0.91% | Stronger | 13-week change +0.91% (level 121.60) | 10-09 |
| Stablecoin main line (de-duplicated) · 13w aux | +0.49% | Flat | 13w +0.49%, BTC 13w +24.4% (level $277.50B), 52w +0.3% | 10-16 |
| Trading bullets · ex-Tron aux | −3.19% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -3.19%, BTC 13w +24.4% (level $167.86B), 52w -8.5% | 10-16 |
| Trading bullets · incl. Tron (parallel) aux | −0.36% | Flat | 13-week change −0.36% (level $262.95B), 52w +0.5% | 10-16 |
| Yield / synthetic stablecoins · 13w aux | +8.77% | Leverage building | 13-week change +8.77% (level $18.24B), 52w -24.7% | 10-16 |
| Spot ETF · 13-week net flow aux | +$5.54B | Trend confirm · inflow | 91-day sum +$5.54B, latest day −$82.40M | 10-16 |
| Spot ETF · 4-week net flow aux | +$1.72B | Trend confirm · inflow | 28-day sum +$1.72B, latest day −$82.40M | 10-16 |
| H1 · CME front-month annualized basis aux | 5.6% | Recording | 16 / 90 days recorded · zone judgment after 90 days | 10-17 |
| H2 · Deribit 3-month annualized basis aux | 5.6% | Recording | 19 / 90 days recorded · zone judgment after 90 days | 10-17 |
| Stablecoins on Tron · 13w aux | +5.05% | Expanding | 13-week change +5.05% (level $95.09B), 52w +21.3% | 10-16 |
| Payment / institutional stablecoins · 13w aux | +17.18% | Expanding | 13-week change +17.18% (level $11.18B), 52w +145.9% | 10-16 |
| BTC–Nasdaq 52w rolling correlation aux | 0.38 | Normal linkage | 52-week correlation 0.38 | 10-09 |
| Tokenized stocks / stablecoin cap aux | 0.86% | Below threshold | cap ratio 0.86% | 10-17 |
| 2Y/10Y curve watch | 0.35% | Normal | level 0.35% | 10-16 |
Show the raw verdict string
L1: [surging·narrowing | Headwind · alert] | optimism z +0.25 | credit: BAA 13wΔ −0.15pp / HY 3.23% (13w +0.50pp) | real yield 2.78% | net liquidity 13w −1.91% / USD 13w +0.91% | L1-B: main line (de-dup) 13w +0.49% / trading bullets 13w −3.19% / ETF 13w +$5.54B / rotation Existing money switching channels (divergence, no adds)
L2 · Cycle Position Cycle state: Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed)
L2 cycle state: Late bear → early bull (bottom confirmed) (since 2026-08-27, day 52)
Price 81,293, -34.9% from the all-time high, +38.9% from the cycle-low close (low 109 days ago), 910 days since the last halving.
Bottom-zone signals 2/6: 1y realized profit < realized loss, LTH supply share ex-7y > 75%. Bottom confirmation: Price above 4 short-term cost lines for 7 days, 6-12M cost < 12-18M cost (counts once seen this cycle), 6-12M cost < 1-2Y cost (counts once seen this cycle).
Levels above: 6-12M cost 86,595 (+6.5%); 1-2Y cost 103,734 (+27.6%); ATH 124,824 (+53.5%)
Levels below: True Market Mean 77,490 (-4.7%); STH cost 74,490 (-8.4%); 200D MA 72,418 (-10.9%)
Next: Bottom confirmed. Historically +152% median 1y forward; 20–60% drawdowns along the way are common.
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV (price ÷ realized price) core | 1.510 | Mid zone | level 1.510 | 10-17 |
| Price / 200-week MA core | 1.219 | Undervalued | ratio 1.219 | 10-17 |
| Supply in profit core | 67.5% | Not a bottom zone | share 67.5% | 10-17 |
| 1-year realized profit / loss ratio core | 0.861 | Bottom-zone signal · on | ratio 0.861 | 10-17 |
| Long-term holder share (ex >7y) core | 75.3% | Bear-bottom signal · on | share 75.3% | 10-17 |
| Green / black ratio (6m–10y cost ÷ 0–10y cost) core | 0.953 | Not reached | ratio 0.953 | 10-17 |
L3 · Supply Structure Between the STH cost and the +1σ pressure zone; large-move warning on
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STH cost +1σ (pressure zone above) core | +7.28% | Pressure zone above | zone vs price +7.28% (level $87,204) | 10-17 |
| STH cost (reference support) core | −8.36% | Price above | line vs price −8.36% (level $74,490) | 10-17 |
| Supply concentration (price ±5%) core | 17.0% | Concentrated | supply share within ±5% 17.0% | 10-17 |
| BTC 30-day annualized volatility core | 37.4% | Low volatility | annualized 37.4% | 10-17 |
| STH-MVRV (price ÷ STH cost) aux | 1.091 | Short-term holders in profit | ratio 1.091 | 10-17 |
| STH supply in profit aux | 64.8% | Descriptive only | share 64.8% | 10-17 |
| STH-SOPR (7-day mean) aux | 1.001 | Descriptive only | 7-day mean 1.001 | 10-17 |
| Addresses holding ≥ 1,000 BTC (4-week change) aux | −0.22% | Coincident description | 4-week change −0.22% (level 7,177,420 BTC) | 10-17 |
| Addresses holding < 1 BTC (4-week change) aux | −0.12% | Coincident description | 4-week change −0.12% (level 1,394,360 BTC) | 10-17 |
| Exchange BTC net flow (7-day sum) aux | −1,902 BTC | Balanced | 7-day sum −1,902 BTC, latest day −1,725 BTC | 10-16 |
| Exchange BTC balance (30d change) aux | −1.40% | Falling | 30-day change −1.40% (level 2,677,737 BTC) | 10-16 |
L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives Neutral: no clear overshoot
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed Index core | 55 | Neutral | level 55 | 10-17 |
| BTC perp funding rate core | 10.9% | Normal | annualized 10.9% | 10-16 |
| BTC open interest (7d change) core | +6.21% | Stable | 7-day change +6.21% (level $3.36B) | 10-17 |
| Altseason index (own) core | 54.0% | Alts leaning | share 54.0% | 10-16 |
| BTC dominance aux | 59.2% | Trend only | level 59.2% | 10-16 |
Launchpads 2026-10-16 · Top60 $3.62M ▼ 3.7%
| Platform | Chain | Fees | DoD | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | Solana | $1.97M | ▲ 3.5% | 54.5% |
| Flap sh | BSC+ | $835.0K | ▼ 6.5% | 23.0% |
| Pons V2 | Robinhood | $528.9K | ▲ 22.0% | 14.6% |
| Pons V1 | Robinhood | $10.7K | ▼ 42.3% | 0.3% |
Data sources
DefiLlama stablecoins ✓FRED ✓Deribit ✓CoinMetrics cycle ✓CoinMetrics exchange flows ✓alternative.me ✓Hyperliquid ✓CoinGecko ✗CoinGecko categories ✓ETF flows ✓CME basis ✓
Welcome to Uncle Onchain Terminal
A top-down, 4-layer BTC framework, updated automatically every day:
- L1 Macro Liquidity: should the risk budget be loose or tight?
- L2 Cycle Position: where are we in the four-year cycle?
- L3 Supply Structure: which levels are really defended, and will moves get bigger?
- L4 Sentiment & Derivatives: is the short term overheating?
Each layer gets a verdict, and the four roll up into one overall read.
How to use it: start with the overall read at the top → switch between L1–L4 for each layer's verdict and evidence → click any metric card for its full history, zone rules and how often each zone occurred historically.
Data refreshes daily at 7:37 PM ET (Event calendar), 7:53 PM ET (Leg tracker), 11:13 PM ET (Core picks monitor), 11:43 PM ET (Alpha radar), 12:13 AM ET (RWA), 9:17 PM ET (L2 cycle state machine), 9:47 PM ET (L3 supply layer), 10:17 PM ET (L4 sentiment & derivatives) and 10:40 PM ET (Daily run); each daily log is frozen once written. Every metric carries an evidence grade; anything we can't source for real is marked "Pending" rather than filled with a proxy.
This site is a work in progress. Spotted a problem or have an idea? Find us on X at @Uncle_Onchain.
Data and process records only. Not investment advice.
Reopen anytime from “Guide” in the sidebar
What’s new · 2026.11.14.6
New section: Alpha Radar (replaces Narratives)
- NewAlpha Radar complements Core Picks: Core covers mature tokens with continuous readings on Binance; this covers what is not mature yet. Two daily tables to start: tokenless protocols with ≥ $100K protocol revenue over 30 days (merged by parent) and protocols added to DefiLlama in the last 14 days. Established projects only, no launch-hour meme sniping.
- NewLead ledger: every protocol that appears in either table is logged with its first-seen date and reading, append-only; each day it is re-checked, and a token appearing later is logged as a launch. Today is the baseline; first-entry events start tomorrow.
- NewThe screening framework (web edition, execution rules removed), a case library (historical mechanisms, C01–C10 readouts, frozen 10-16 scores) and a progress page go live with it. Readings, evidence and unknowns only; no scores or rankings; not trade advice. /narrative/ now redirects to /alpha/.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.5
Leg tracker: phase-matched ticks + a day-45 marker for down-legs
- NewBTC and altcoin cards now carry ticks: down-legs get a duration bar and drop ticks, up-legs get gain ticks (the duration bar and day-89 line are unchanged). Ticks compare with legs from the same cycle phase, picked from the current L2 state, show the half and 9-in-10 marks, and state how many comparable legs this one already outlasted or outdid.
- NewA hypothesis-grade day-45 marker for BTC down-legs: of 9 down-legs since 2017 that passed day 45, 8 bottomed within 2–16 days, 2.1%–13.2% lower; the exception was the 2018-09 capitulation. Only 9 samples; the retirement rule is on the detail page. Not used by the trading plan. No marker for altcoins (untested).
- Improved/leg-tracker/ drops the altcoin-window section (its reading card went on 11-13), and the intro no longer asks about it.
What’s new · 2026.11.14.2
Core picks: full Binance volume, score backtest, rally replay
- DataVolume board now covers all of Binance: every spot pair (USDT / USDC / USD1 / FDUSD / BTC / fiat, converted at the day’s close) + USDⓈ-M (USDT and USDC margined, perpetual + delivery) + COIN-M. One table with regular / entrant / dropped / new tags, filterable and sortable. The market benchmark now uses the Macro page’s altcoin basket.
- DataScore research opened: the prototype’s R/C/V/D thresholds were never tested and none passed the first backtest. A research plan (what to test, data, pre-set pass rules, roles, stages) is on the new “Score research” tab; until it concludes the page shows readings and test results, with no scores or score rankings. The entry checklist now counts only verified and process rules. Asset pages gain a six-question pick card.
- NewNew “Rally replay” tab (Jul–Oct 2026 leaders-and-rotation study, 125 coins, anchor 08-19); asset pages show each coin’s class in the last BTC rally, plus active users, supply-side revenue, treasury and core developers (GitHub, from the next run). Every rule and score now has a plain-language explanation.