Daily Log · daily
2026-10-03 log
Generated 2026-10-03 10:38 UTC
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Verdict · 2026-10-03 log
Real yields surging while sentiment is warm — macro trims the risk budget a notch; crowded leverage makes pullbacks sharp.
Macro Liquidity · Macro cautious · alertCycle Position · Cycle lowCoin Flows · Coins leaving exchangesSentiment & Derivatives · Sentiment warm
L1: [surging·narrowing | Neutral-cautious · alert] | optimism z +0.30 | credit: BAA 13wΔ -0.05pp / HY 3.24% (13w +0.50pp) | real yield 2.88% | net liquidity 13w -0.84% / USD 13w -0.46% | stablecoins: ex-payment 13w +0.33% / bullets 13w -2.61% | ETF 4w +$2.01B
Uncle's note
No hand-written note today; the above is rule-based.
Alerts
Alerts of the day2026-10-03
- MedLaunchpad: StonkFun 数据源延迟（最后一天 2026-10-01），相关列标「延迟」，没有拿旧值顶替
- MedLaunchpad: 赛道 Top60 分母缺 2 家（约占前一日 11%），份额偏高
Four-layer readings
L1 · Macro Liquidity Neutral-cautious · alert
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change core | +4.92% | Optimistic | 13-week log change +4.92% (level 30807.93) | 10-02 |
| VIX core | 16.39 | Calm | level 16.39 | 10-01 |
| Optimism composite z core | +0.30 | Strong | mean of 3 z-scores +0.30 | 10-02 |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change core | -0.05pp | Narrowing | 13-week change -0.05pp (level 1.49%) | 10-01 |
| NFCI · 13w change core | -0.03 | Easing | 13-week change -0.03 (level -0.548) | 09-25 |
| High-yield spread · 13w change aux | +0.50pp | Widening fast | 13-week change +0.50pp (level 3.24%) | 10-01 |
| 10y real yield · 4 states core | 2.88% | Surging | level 2.88%, 13w +0.62pp | 10-01 |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change core | -0.84% | Mild contraction | 13-week change -0.84% (level $5.79T) | 10-02 |
| Broad dollar · 13w change aux | -0.46% | Weaker | 13-week change -0.46% (level 120.33) | 09-25 |
| Stablecoins ex-payment issuers aux | +0.33% | Flat | 13w +0.33%, BTC 13w +30.1% (level $302.00B) | 10-02 |
| Trading bullets · core ex-Tron aux | -2.61% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -2.61%, BTC 13w +30.1% (level $170.26B) | 10-02 |
| Yield / synthetic stablecoins · 13w aux | -4.37% | Leverage receding | 13-week change -4.37% (level $17.69B) | 10-02 |
| Spot ETF · 4-week net flow aux | +$2.01B | Inflow | 28-day sum +$2.01B, latest day +$31.70M | 10-02 |
| CME futures annualized basis (front) aux | 3.4% | Recording | 2 days recorded; percentile after 90 | 10-03 |
| Deribit 3-month annualized basis aux | 5.3% | Recording | 5 days recorded; percentile after 90 | 10-03 |
| BTC–Nasdaq 52w rolling correlation aux | 0.40 | Normal linkage | 52-week correlation 0.40 | 10-02 |
| Tokenized stocks / stablecoin cap aux | 0.82% | Below threshold | cap ratio 0.82% | 10-03 |
| 2Y/10Y curve watch | 0.45% | Normal | level 0.45% | 10-02 |
L2 · Cycle Position Cycle position: Low
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV core | 1.57 | Fair | level 1.57 | 10-02 |
| MVRV Z-Score core | 1.01 | Low | level 1.01 | 10-02 |
| Realized Price (spot premium) core | +57.47% | Fair premium | spot premium +57.47% (level $53,671) | 10-02 |
| NUPL core | 0.365 | Optimism / anxiety | level 0.365 | 10-02 |
| Mayer Multiple aux | 1.18 | Fair | level 1.18 | 10-02 |
| Puell Multiple aux | 1.05 | Fair | level 1.05 | 10-02 |
| Pi Cycle Top aux | 0.449 | Far from top signal | ratio 0.449 | 10-02 |
L3 · Coin Flows Coins leaving exchanges (hoarding)
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange BTC net flow (7-day sum) core | -21,906 BTC | Heavy outflow | 7-day sum -21,906 BTC, latest day -3,308 BTC | 10-02 |
| Exchange BTC balance (30d change) core | -1.04% | Falling | 30-day change -1.04% (level 2,678,292 BTC) | 10-02 |
L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives Warm: leverage and sentiment rising
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed Index core | 67 | Greed | level 67 | 10-03 |
| BTC perp funding rate core | 9.9% | Normal | annualized 9.9% | 10-02 |
| Altseason index (own) core | 68.0% | Alts leaning | share 68.0% | 10-03 |
| BTC dominance aux | 59.2% | Trend only | level 59.2% | 10-03 |
Core indicators missing that day: BTC 未平仓合约（7 日变化）
Launchpads 2026-10-02 · Top60 $6.65M ▼ 17.4%
| Platform | Chain | Fees | DoD | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | Solana | $2.37M | ▼ 1.5% | 35.6% |
| Flap sh | BSC+ | $1.76M | ▲ 0.7% | 26.4% |
| Pons V2 | Robinhood | $1.36M | ▲ 2.5% | 20.5% |
| Pons V1 | Robinhood | $36.3K | ▲ 18.7% | 0.5% |
Data sources
DefiLlama 稳定币 ✓FRED ✓Deribit ✓CoinMetrics 周期 ✓CoinMetrics 交易所流量 ✓alternative.me ✓Hyperliquid ✓CoinGecko ✓CoinGecko 类目 ✓ETF 资金流 ✓CME 升水 ✓