Daily Log · daily
2026-10-04 log
Generated 2026-10-04 17:09 UTC
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Verdict · 2026-10-04 log
Real yields surging while sentiment is warm — macro trims the risk budget a notch; crowded leverage makes pullbacks sharp.
Macro Liquidity · Macro cautious · alertCycle Position · Cycle lowCoin Flows · Coins leaving exchangesSentiment & Derivatives · Sentiment warm
L1: [surging·narrowing | Neutral-cautious · alert] | optimism z +0.30 | credit: BAA 13wΔ -0.05pp / HY 3.24% (13w +0.50pp) | real yield 2.88% | net liquidity 13w -0.84% / USD 13w -0.46% | stablecoins: ex-payment 13w +0.80% / bullets 13w -2.12% | ETF 4w +$2.01B
Uncle's note
No hand-written note today; the above is rule-based.
Alerts
Alerts of the day2026-10-04
- MedLaunchpad: PONS 当日销毁 966K 枚，超过此前 7 日均 320K 的 3 倍
Four-layer readings
L1 · Macro Liquidity Neutral-cautious · alert
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change core | +4.92% | Optimistic | 13-week log change +4.92% (level 30807.93) | 10-02 |
| VIX core | 16.39 | Calm | level 16.39 | 10-01 |
| Optimism composite z core | +0.30 | Strong | mean of 3 z-scores +0.30 | 10-02 |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change core | -0.05pp | Narrowing | 13-week change -0.05pp (level 1.49%) | 10-01 |
| NFCI · 13w change core | -0.03 | Easing | 13-week change -0.03 (level -0.548) | 09-25 |
| High-yield spread · 13w change aux | +0.50pp | Widening fast | 13-week change +0.50pp (level 3.24%) | 10-01 |
| 10y real yield · 4 states core | 2.88% | Surging | level 2.88%, 13w +0.62pp | 10-01 |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change core | -0.84% | Mild contraction | 13-week change -0.84% (level $5.79T) | 10-02 |
| Broad dollar · 13w change aux | -0.46% | Weaker | 13-week change -0.46% (level 120.33) | 09-25 |
| Stablecoins ex-payment issuers aux | +0.80% | Flat | 13w +0.80%, BTC 13w +27.9% (level $302.33B) | 10-03 |
| Trading bullets · core ex-Tron aux | -2.12% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -2.12%, BTC 13w +27.9% (level $170.16B) | 10-03 |
| Yield / synthetic stablecoins · 13w aux | -0.27% | Flat | 13-week change -0.27% (level $17.84B) | 10-03 |
| Spot ETF · 4-week net flow aux | +$2.01B | Inflow | 28-day sum +$2.01B, latest day +$31.70M | 10-02 |
| CME futures annualized basis (front) aux | -9.4% | Recording | 3 days recorded; percentile after 90 | 10-04 |
| Deribit 3-month annualized basis aux | 5.0% | Recording | 6 days recorded; percentile after 90 | 10-04 |
| BTC–Nasdaq 52w rolling correlation aux | 0.40 | Normal linkage | 52-week correlation 0.40 | 10-02 |
| Tokenized stocks / stablecoin cap aux | 0.82% | Below threshold | cap ratio 0.82% | 10-03 |
| 2Y/10Y curve watch | 0.45% | Normal | level 0.45% | 10-02 |
L2 · Cycle Position Cycle position: Low
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV core | 1.58 | Fair | level 1.58 | 10-03 |
| MVRV Z-Score core | 1.01 | Low | level 1.01 | 10-03 |
| Realized Price (spot premium) core | +57.89% | Fair premium | spot premium +57.89% (level $53,680) | 10-03 |
| NUPL core | 0.367 | Optimism / anxiety | level 0.367 | 10-03 |
| Mayer Multiple aux | 1.19 | Fair | level 1.19 | 10-03 |
| Puell Multiple aux | 1.00 | Low | level 1.00 | 10-03 |
| Pi Cycle Top aux | 0.450 | Far from top signal | ratio 0.450 | 10-03 |
L3 · Coin Flows Coins leaving exchanges (hoarding)
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange BTC net flow (7-day sum) core | -20,902 BTC | Heavy outflow | 7-day sum -20,902 BTC, latest day -4,941 BTC | 10-03 |
| Exchange BTC balance (30d change) core | -1.14% | Falling | 30-day change -1.14% (level 2,673,624 BTC) | 10-03 |
L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives Warm: leverage and sentiment rising
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed Index core | 65 | Greed | level 65 | 10-04 |
| BTC perp funding rate core | 7.4% | Normal | annualized 7.4% | 10-03 |
| Altseason index (own) core | 74.0% | Alts leaning | share 74.0% | 10-04 |
| BTC dominance aux | 59.1% | Trend only | level 59.1% | 10-04 |
Core indicators missing that day: BTC 未平仓合约（7 日变化）
Launchpads 2026-10-03 · Top60 $6.02M ▼ 16.2%
| Platform | Chain | Fees | DoD | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | Solana | $2.31M | ▼ 2.5% | 38.3% |
| Flap sh | BSC+ | $1.58M | ▼ 9.9% | 26.2% |
| Pons V2 | Robinhood | $1.04M | ▼ 23.5% | 17.3% |
| StonkFun | Solana | $297.6K | ▼ 44.5% | 4.9% |
| Pons V1 | Robinhood | $30.4K | ▼ 16.4% | 0.5% |
Data sources
DefiLlama 稳定币 ✓FRED ✓Deribit ✓CoinMetrics 周期 ✓CoinMetrics 交易所流量 ✓alternative.me ✓Hyperliquid ✓CoinGecko ✓CoinGecko 类目 ✗ETF 资金流 ✓CME 升水 ✓