Daily Log · daily
2026-10-05 log
Generated 2026-10-05 07:21 UTC
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Verdict · 2026-10-05 log
Real yields surging while sentiment is warm — macro trims the risk budget a notch; crowded leverage makes pullbacks sharp.
Macro Liquidity · Macro cautious · alertCycle Position · Cycle lowCoin Flows · Coins leaving exchangesSentiment & Derivatives · Sentiment warm
L1: [surging·narrowing | Neutral-cautious · alert] | optimism z +0.30 | credit: BAA 13wΔ -0.05pp / HY 3.24% (13w +0.50pp) | real yield 2.88% | net liquidity 13w -0.84% / USD 13w -0.46% | L1-B: main line (de-dup) 13w +0.86% / trading bullets 13w -2.11% / ETF 13w +$6.57B / rotation Existing money switching channels (divergence, no adds)
Uncle's note
No hand-written note today; the above is rule-based.
Alerts
Alerts of the day2026-10-05
- MedExchange BTC balance (30d change) moved from 'Falling (coins leaving)' to 'Flat' (-1.14% → -0.96%)
- MedLaunchpad: StonkFun 数据源延迟（最后一天 2026-10-03），相关列标「延迟」，没有拿旧值顶替
Four-layer readings
L1 · Macro Liquidity Neutral-cautious · alert
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change core | +4.92% | Optimistic | 13-week log change +4.92% (level 30807.93) | 10-02 |
| VIX core | 16.39 | Calm | level 16.39 | 10-01 |
| Optimism composite z core | +0.30 | Strong | mean of 3 z-scores +0.30 | 10-02 |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change core | -0.05pp | Narrowing | 13-week change -0.05pp (level 1.49%) | 10-01 |
| NFCI · 13w change core | -0.03 | Easing | 13-week change -0.03 (level -0.548) | 09-25 |
| High-yield spread · 13w change aux | +0.50pp | Widening fast | 13-week change +0.50pp (level 3.24%) | 10-01 |
| 10y real yield · 4 states core | 2.88% | Surging | level 2.88%, 13w +0.62pp | 10-01 |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change core | -0.84% | Mild contraction | 13-week change -0.84% (level $5.79T) | 10-02 |
| Broad dollar · 13w change aux | -0.46% | Weaker | 13-week change -0.46% (level 120.33) | 09-25 |
| Stablecoin main line (de-duplicated) · 13w aux | +0.86% | Flat | 13w +0.86%, BTC 13w +30.0% (level $284.48B), 52w +3.8% | 10-04 |
| Trading bullets · ex-Tron aux | -2.11% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -2.11%, BTC 13w +30.0% (level $170.17B), 52w -5.4% | 10-04 |
| Trading bullets · incl. Tron (parallel) aux | +0.25% | Flat | 13-week change +0.25% (level $265.03B), 52w +2.8% | 10-04 |
| Yield / synthetic stablecoins · 13w aux | +0.25% | Flat | 13-week change +0.25% (level $17.93B), 52w -30.4% | 10-04 |
| Spot ETF · 13-week net flow aux | +$6.57B | Trend confirm · inflow | 91-day sum +$6.57B, latest day +$31.70M | 10-02 |
| Spot ETF · 4-week net flow aux | +$2.01B | Trend confirm · inflow | 28-day sum +$2.01B, latest day +$31.70M | 10-02 |
| H1 · CME front-month annualized basis aux | 6.3% | Recording | 4 days recorded; percentile after 90 | 10-05 |
| H2 · Deribit 3-month annualized basis aux | 5.5% | Recording | 7 days recorded; percentile after 90 | 10-05 |
| Stablecoins on Tron · 13w aux | +4.77% | Expanding | 13-week change +4.77% (level $94.85B), 52w +21.8% | 10-04 |
| Payment / institutional stablecoins · 13w aux | +21.76% | Expanding | 13-week change +21.76% (level $11.27B), 52w +169.1% | 10-04 |
| BTC–Nasdaq 52w rolling correlation aux | 0.40 | Normal linkage | 52-week correlation 0.40 | 10-02 |
| Tokenized stocks / stablecoin cap aux | 0.83% | Below threshold | cap ratio 0.83% | 10-05 |
| 2Y/10Y curve watch | 0.45% | Normal | level 0.45% | 10-02 |
L2 · Cycle Position Cycle position: Low
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV core | 1.61 | Fair | level 1.61 | 10-04 |
| MVRV Z-Score core | 1.07 | Low | level 1.07 | 10-04 |
| Realized Price (spot premium) core | +61.11% | Fair premium | spot premium +61.11% (level $53,704) | 10-04 |
| NUPL core | 0.379 | Optimism / anxiety | level 0.379 | 10-04 |
| Mayer Multiple aux | 1.21 | Fair | level 1.21 | 10-04 |
| Puell Multiple aux | 1.09 | Fair | level 1.09 | 10-04 |
| Pi Cycle Top aux | 0.452 | Far from top signal | ratio 0.452 | 10-04 |
L3 · Coin Flows Coins leaving exchanges (hoarding)
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange BTC net flow (7-day sum) core | -19,602 BTC | Heavy outflow | 7-day sum -19,602 BTC, latest day -2,163 BTC | 10-04 |
| Exchange BTC balance (30d change) core | -0.96% | Flat | 30-day change -0.96% (level 2,675,689 BTC) | 10-04 |
L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives Warm: leverage and sentiment rising
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed Index core | 70 | Greed | level 70 | 10-05 |
| BTC perp funding rate core | 10.6% | Normal | annualized 10.6% | 10-04 |
| Altseason index (own) core | 74.0% | Alts leaning | share 74.0% | 10-04 |
| BTC dominance aux | 59.1% | Trend only | level 59.1% | 10-04 |
Core indicators missing that day: BTC 未平仓合约（7 日变化）
Launchpads 2026-10-04 · Top60 $5.79M ▼ 4.0%
| Platform | Chain | Fees | DoD | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | Solana | $2.40M | ▲ 4.0% | 41.5% |
| Flap sh | BSC+ | $1.61M | ▲ 2.0% | 27.9% |
| Pons V2 | Robinhood | $852.4K | ▼ 18.3% | 14.7% |
| Pons V1 | Robinhood | $24.7K | ▼ 18.7% | 0.4% |
Data sources
DefiLlama 稳定币 ✓FRED ✓Deribit ✓CoinMetrics 周期 ✓CoinMetrics 交易所流量 ✓alternative.me ✓Hyperliquid ✓CoinGecko ✗CoinGecko 类目 ✓ETF 资金流 ✓CME 升水 ✓