Daily Log · daily
2026-10-07 log
Generated 2026-10-07 10:39 UTC
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Frozen once written · rules in Methodology
Verdict · 2026-10-07 log
Real yields surging while sentiment is warm — macro trims the risk budget a notch; crowded leverage makes pullbacks sharp.
Macro Liquidity · Macro cautious · alertCycle Position · Cycle lowCoin Flows · Coins leaving exchangesSentiment & Derivatives · Sentiment warm
L1: [surging·narrowing | Neutral-cautious · alert] | optimism z +0.32 | credit: BAA 13wΔ -0.12pp / HY 3.12% (13w +0.43pp) | real yield 2.95% | net liquidity 13w -0.84% / USD 13w +0.58% | L1-B: main line (de-dup) 13w +0.98% / trading bullets 13w -1.95% / ETF 13w +$6.47B / rotation Existing money switching channels (divergence, no adds)
Uncle's note
No hand-written note today; the above is rule-based.
Alerts
Alerts of the day2026-10-07
- MedExchange BTC balance (30d change) moved from 'Flat' to 'Falling (coins leaving)' (-0.98% → -1.52%)
- MedExchanges saw a one-day net outflow of 14,211 BTC
- MedLaunchpad: StonkFun 数据源延迟（最后一天 2026-10-05），相关列标「延迟」，没有拿旧值顶替
- MedLaunchpad: 赛道 Top60 分母缺 2 家（约占前一日 7%），份额偏高
Four-layer readings
L1 · Macro Liquidity Neutral-cautious · alert
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 · 13w change core | +4.59% | Optimistic | 13-week log change +4.59% (level 31224.69) | 10-06 |
| VIX core | 15.52 | Calm | level 15.52 | 10-05 |
| Optimism composite z core | +0.32 | Strong | mean of 3 z-scores +0.32 | 10-06 |
| BAA credit spread · 13w change core | -0.12pp | Narrowing | 13-week change -0.12pp (level 1.46%) | 10-05 |
| NFCI · 13w change core | -0.03 | Easing | 13-week change -0.03 (level -0.548) | 09-25 |
| High-yield spread · 13w change aux | +0.43pp | Widening fast | 13-week change +0.43pp (level 3.12%) | 10-05 |
| 10y real yield · 4 states core | 2.95% | Surging | level 2.95%, 13w +0.63pp | 10-05 |
| Fed net liquidity · 13w change core | -0.84% | Mild contraction | 13-week change -0.84% (level $5.79T) | 10-02 |
| Broad dollar · 13w change aux | +0.58% | Stronger | 13-week change +0.58% (level 121.38) | 10-02 |
| Stablecoin main line (de-duplicated) · 13w aux | +0.98% | Flat | 13w +0.98%, BTC 13w +28.8% (level $284.82B), 52w +3.9% | 10-06 |
| Trading bullets · ex-Tron aux | -1.95% | Contracting · diverges from price | 13w -1.95%, BTC 13w +28.8% (level $170.45B), 52w -5.3% | 10-06 |
| Trading bullets · incl. Tron (parallel) aux | +0.36% | Flat | 13-week change +0.36% (level $265.31B), 52w +2.9% | 10-06 |
| Yield / synthetic stablecoins · 13w aux | +1.65% | Leverage building | 13-week change +1.65% (level $18.19B), 52w -29.4% | 10-06 |
| Spot ETF · 13-week net flow aux | +$6.47B | Trend confirm · inflow | 91-day sum +$6.47B, latest day +$118.80M | 10-06 |
| Spot ETF · 4-week net flow aux | +$2.25B | Trend confirm · inflow | 28-day sum +$2.25B, latest day +$118.80M | 10-06 |
| H1 · CME front-month annualized basis aux | 5.3% | Recording | 6 days recorded; percentile after 90 | 10-07 |
| H2 · Deribit 3-month annualized basis aux | 5.1% | Recording | 9 days recorded; percentile after 90 | 10-07 |
| Stablecoins on Tron · 13w aux | +4.78% | Expanding | 13-week change +4.78% (level $94.86B), 52w +21.8% | 10-06 |
| Payment / institutional stablecoins · 13w aux | +22.69% | Expanding | 13-week change +22.69% (level $11.35B), 52w +171.1% | 10-06 |
| BTC–Nasdaq 52w rolling correlation aux | 0.40 | Normal linkage | 52-week correlation 0.40 | 10-02 |
| Tokenized stocks / stablecoin cap aux | 0.86% | Below threshold | cap ratio 0.86% | 10-07 |
| 2Y/10Y curve watch | 0.48% | Normal | level 0.48% | 10-06 |
L2 · Cycle Position Cycle position: Low
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV core | 1.59 | Fair | level 1.59 | 10-06 |
| MVRV Z-Score core | 1.04 | Low | level 1.04 | 10-06 |
| Realized Price (spot premium) core | +59.05% | Fair premium | spot premium +59.05% (level $53,771) | 10-06 |
| NUPL core | 0.371 | Optimism / anxiety | level 0.371 | 10-06 |
| Mayer Multiple aux | 1.19 | Fair | level 1.19 | 10-06 |
| Puell Multiple aux | 1.17 | Fair | level 1.17 | 10-06 |
| Pi Cycle Top aux | 0.455 | Far from top signal | ratio 0.455 | 10-06 |
L3 · Coin Flows Coins leaving exchanges (hoarding)
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange BTC net flow (7-day sum) core | -36,425 BTC | Heavy outflow | 7-day sum -36,425 BTC, latest day -14,211 BTC | 10-06 |
| Exchange BTC balance (30d change) core | -1.52% | Falling | 30-day change -1.52% (level 2,660,207 BTC) | 10-06 |
L4 · Sentiment & Derivatives Warm: leverage and sentiment rising
| Indicator | Reading | Zone | Basis | Data date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed Index core | 71 | Greed | level 71 | 10-07 |
| BTC perp funding rate core | 10.9% | Normal | annualized 10.9% | 10-06 |
| BTC open interest (7d change) core | +16.18% | Leverage piling up | 7-day change +16.18% (level $3.45B) | 10-07 |
| Altseason index (own) core | 62.0% | Alts leaning | share 62.0% | 10-06 |
| BTC dominance aux | 59.2% | Trend only | level 59.2% | 10-06 |
Launchpads 2026-10-06 · Top60 $5.62M ▼ 10.8%
| Platform | Chain | Fees | DoD | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pump.fun | Solana | $2.52M | ▼ 2.7% | 44.8% |
| Flap sh | BSC+ | $1.35M | ▼ 9.0% | 24.1% |
| Pons V2 | Robinhood | $681.6K | ▼ 21.7% | 12.1% |
| Pons V1 | Robinhood | $28.7K | ▲ 18.2% | 0.5% |
Data sources
DefiLlama 稳定币 ✓FRED ✓Deribit ✓CoinMetrics 周期 ✓CoinMetrics 交易所流量 ✓alternative.me ✓Hyperliquid ✓CoinGecko ✗CoinGecko 类目 ✓ETF 资金流 ✓CME 升水 ✓